Market Analysis

Market Overview

United States

The U.S. dollar continues to weaken, reaching its lowest level since February 2022, amid concerns that Trump’s proposed $3.3 trillion spending and tax cut package could further strain the U.S. fiscal position.

Markets are also under pressure due to the slow progress in trade negotiations, with the 90-day reciprocal tariff deadline set to expire next week. Trump’s repeated attacks on the Fed and calls for deeper rate cuts have reinforced expectations of more aggressive monetary easing.

China

The PBoC raised the USD/CNY reference rate to 7.1534, the strongest fixing since November 2024, in an effort to curb yuan depreciation amid broad USD weakness.

However, the CFETS index—which reflects the yuan’s trade-weighted value—fell to 95.15, its lowest since early 2021, signaling persistent devaluation pressure in global trade dynamics. The yuan edged higher on expectations of policy stability and resilient exports, espite ongoing tariff tensions with the U.S.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin is hovering around $107,000, maintaining a bullish structure after rebounding from the $105,500 support. While it has yet to break the $108,000 resistance, the medium-term outlook remains positive amid stable sentiment ahead of the upcoming U.S. jobs report.

On the policy front, Binance emphasized the government's role in fostering the crypto ecosystem. Bhutan stands out with its crypto-based tourism payment program and holdings of over 12,000 BTC.

Technical Analysis

After a strong rebound from the $97,766 – $102,374 support zone, BTC has broken above the EMA levels and is holding steadily above them.

Trading volume is showing signs of tapering off in the $107k–$108k range, indicating cautious buying pressure.BTC is currently consolidating just below the $108,766 resistance in a short-term sideways pattern. As long as $105,281 holds, the probability of a breakout remains high.

EURUSD

Fundamental Analysis

The euro has risen to its highest level since 2021 as the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, weighed down by concerns over Trump’s proposed $3.3 trillion spending and tax cut package, which fuels fiscal pressure and strengthens expectations of a Fed rate cut. EUR/USD is trading around 1.179, up 13.8% in H1 2025—the strongest first-half performance on record.

While the ECB has cut rates to 2%, investors expect the easing cycle to pause. ECB President Christine Lagarde and other central bank leaders are speaking today at the Portugal forum, closely watched for insights into the eurozone’s policy outlook.

Technical Analysis

The medium-term trend is clearly bullish, with price forming higher highs and higher lows, confirming strong upward momentum.

Trading volume has shown a slight increase during recent upward moves, indicating that the rally is supported by active capital inflows.

Gold Spot(XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold rose for a second straight session, trading around $3,310/oz, supported by a weakening USD as investors grow concerned over Trump’s proposed $3.3 trillion spending plan, which heightens fiscal risk.

Expectations that the Fed will cut rates three times in H2 2025 continue to boost gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Fears over Fed independence and rising trade tensions—particularly with Japan—are also fueling defensive buying.

Technical Analysis

Primary Trend: Short-term downtrend with a recovery from demand zone after a sharp drop from the Bearish Order Block (OB) around $3,380, price rebounded from the Bullish OB at $3,245–$3,265 and is now moving toward the EMA 200.

Trading volume picked up slightly at the $3,245 bottom, signaling buying interest from whales.

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