Market Analysis

Market Overview

United States

U.S. markets came under pressure as President Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran, fueling fears of military action and intensifying risk-off sentiment. U.S. stock futures edged lower, while oil and gold prices rose amid escalating Middle East tensions. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.43%, signaling a renewed flight to safety.    

The U.S. dollar gained for a third straight session, supported by its safe-haven status and expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady at the June 18 meeting. Investors are awaiting signals from the dot plot and Chair Powell’s remarks to gauge  the likelihood of rate cuts in the second half of the year.

United Kingdom

The British pound (GBP) is trading around 1.36 USD as markets await this week’s interest rate decision from the Bank of England (BoE). While the BoE is expected to hold rates steady amid easing inflation, investors will closely watch its policy outlook given global trade uncertainty and rising Middle East tensions.

Market sentiment has somewhat stabilized as Iran–Israel war fears ease, but the U.S. dollar remains firm on safe-haven demand. The BoE, along with the Fed and BOJ, is in focus this week as investors look for clues on monetary policy trends for the second half of the year.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin rebounded to around $108,800 but failed to sustain gains as Israel–Iran conflict fears triggered risk-off sentiment. BTC slipped back below $108,000, breaking its short-term uptrend, though it remains above $106,800 and the 100-hour SMA. A drop below $105,500 could open the way to $103,500–$102,000.

Bitwise projects BTC could reach $140,000 within 50 days, citing historical patterns and ETF inflows. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining costs have surged past $70,000 due to rising hashrates and electricity prices, squeezing margins for less efficient miners.

Technical Analysis

Slight short-term rebound after bouncing from the support area near the EMA 200.However, price is still facing strong resistance around $109,356 (Bearish Order Block) with no clear breakout momentum yet.

Trading volume: Slight increase as price bounced off EMA 200, but no significant surge near the $109k resistance—buying pressure remains subdued.

USD/JPY

Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY continues to rise, approaching the 145 level as the yen weakens for a third straight session ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. While the BOJ is expected to keep rates at 0.5%, investors are watching for signs of reduced bond purchases amid a sharp rise in long-term yields.

The U.S. dollar strengthened on inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions after President Trump called for a full evacuation of Tehran. His failure to reach a tax deal with Japanese PM Ishiba at the G7 also pressured the yen, while markets await signals from the Fed on a possible rate cut path next month.

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY is currently in a sideways trend with a mild recovery after the previous drop but still struggling to break above strong resistance. Price is ranging between 142.35 and 145.50.Recent sessions saw a slight increase in volume during up moves, supporting the current rebound. 

However, the latest session showed a bearish candle with low volume, indicating hesitation near resistance.Price has just crossed above all three EMAs, especially the EMA 200 — signaling short-term bullish momentum.

Gold Spot(XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold prices rose to the $3,390/oz area as Middle East tensions escalated following Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, driving demand for safe-haven assets. Although Iran signaled its willingness to resume nuclear negotiations if the U.S. stays out of the conflict, markets continued to price in high geopolitical risks. Previously, gold dropped sharply by 1.4% at the start of the week, reflecting volatility tied to the progress of negotiations.

Markets await May U.S. retail sales, industrial output, and the June 18 FOMC decision. With stable inflation and slowing jobs, the Fed is expected to hold rates but may hint at Q3 easing.

Technical Analysis

Price remains above the EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 levels.The structure shows higher highs and higher lows, confirming an uptrend.

However, the recent peak near $3,451.5 shows signs of weakening, suggesting a possible short-term pullback.

Volume increased during the breakout above the $3,380 resistance in early June, confirming the move. Currently, declining volume during the price pullback suggests a healthy correction rather than strong distribution.

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