Market Analysis

Market Overview

United States

Fed is maintaining a "patient" stance on monetary policy amid rising uncertainty from tariff measures. While some officials—such as  Goolsbee and Waller—lean toward potential rate cuts in the second half of the year, most are still waiting for clearer signals from inflation and labor market data before making policy adjustments.    

Internal views within the Fed are becoming more divided, especially regarding the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation expectations. Meanwhile, UBS has warned that an escalating trade war could weaken the U.S. dollar over time, as trade partners delay negotiations and markets begin pricing in the likelihood of Fed policy easing.

Japan

Japanese stocks jumped 1.1% as concerns over U.S. tariffs eased and a weaker yen boosted electronics shares. The USD/JPY pair climbed near 144, benefiting exporters. Notably, Advantest and Renesas Electronics rose 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively.

Investor sentiment improved following stronger-than-expected U.S. JOLTS job data, signaling a resilient labor market. However, markets remain cautious, closely monitoring developments in U.S. trade policy and the Ukraine conflict, both of which could impact global growth outlooks.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold remains range-bound under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and investor caution ahead of Fed policy signals.

On the institutional front, Vanadi—a Spanish coffee chain—announced a shift to a “Bitcoin-first” strategy, with plans to purchase $1.1 billion worth of BTC, following MicroStrategy’s model. At the same time, Trump’s Truth Social filed for a Bitcoin ETF, marking an aggressive expansion into digital assets. These moves highlight growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin despite ongoing market risks.

Technical Analysis

BTC is currently consolidating after a pullback from its ~$112,000 high. The price is hovering around $105,700, trading sideways within a narrow range between the $102,374 support and $109,356 resistance. RSI sits at ~51.38, in neutral territory. It’s forming higher lows, suggesting a possible hidden bullish divergence.

Trading volume shows accumulation signals near the $104K–$105K support zone, indicating dip-buying activity. However, there’s still no breakout volume to confirm a renewed uptrend.

EURUSD

Fundamental Analysis

The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, but without offering clear forward guidance—making the meeting potentially a “non-event” for the euro. Bank of America notes that markets have already priced in this move.

Meanwhile, the Fed maintains a patient” stance, despite some officials sounding more dovish. Risks from U.S. trade policy are acknowledged but not yet sufficient to shift monetary direction. As a result, EUR/USD continues to trade within a narrow range, awaiting upcoming U.S. economic data.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD remains in a short-term uptrend after breaking out of a prolonged consolidation zone around 1.1275–1.1330. However, the pair is currently pulling back after its recent rally, facing resistance at 1.1423–1.1445.

Volume increased during the breakout near 1.1340 at the end of May. Recent volume has been declining, signaling a short-term correction but no clear signs of distribution yet.

Gold Spot (XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold traded in a narrow range as the market balanced between geopolitical tensions and a recovering U.S. dollar. Safe-haven demand rose after Ukraine attacked the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to Russia. Expectations that the Fed may cut rates later this year also supported gold prices.

However, gains were limited as the USD rebounded from a six-week low, pushing spot gold slightly down to around $3,350/oz. The OECD also downgraded U.S. and global growth forecasts, raising macroeconomic concerns and adding to short-term volatility in gold..

Technical Analysis

Gold is currently in a recovery uptrend after a sharp decline to the $3,120–$3,140 range. However, strong resistance at $3,380 (the April 23 gap zone) remains a key barrier.

Volume surged during the rally from May 31 to June 2, confirming active buying interest. Recent low-volume pullbacks suggest the correction is healthy and not yet signaling a trend reversal.

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