Market Analysis

Market Overview

U.S Market

The U.S. market has entered a cautious phase following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates steady in the 4.25%–4.5% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of rising risks of inflation and unemployment due to the impact of new tariff policies, particularly President Trump’s imposition of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports. This has dampened expectations for an early policy easing 
by the Fed.

Meanwhile, investors have increased holdings of gold and bonds as a defensive move amid growing uncertainty. The U.S. dollar slightly weakened, while equities traded sideways. Market participants are closely watching the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks in Switzerland to assess the economic outlook and potential adjustments to future Fed policy.

Cryptocurrency

The crypto market is regaining strong momentum as Bitcoin surpasses the $98,000 mark for the first time since February 2025. The rally was fueled by the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, despite political pressure from President Trump. At the same time, institutional capital continues to flow into the market, with over $4.41 billion poured into Bitcoin ETFs since late March, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has returned to the “Greed” zone — signaling growing investor risk appetite.

On the policy front, Arizona and New Hampshire have passed legislation to establish Bitcoin Reserve Funds, with several other states watching closely. Meanwhile, mining companies such as Core Scientific are pivoting toward AI and high-performance computing (HPC) to optimize profitability following the recent Bitcoin halving.

XAU/USD

Prediction: Increase

Gold prices continue to maintain a medium-term uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. After bouncing from the $3,212 support zone, gold broke through $3,298 and is now hovering around $3,405. The price structure remains solid but is facing pressure at the $3,440 resistance zone — a former gap area and Bearish Order Block (OB). RSI and EMA indicators suggest the uptrend is still intact, though reactions at this resistance should be closely monitored.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:

The Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%, warning of rising inflation and unemployment risks. Chairman Powell ruled out early rate cuts, indicating a cautious stance. This maintains gold’s appeal as a defensive asset.

Inflation and Market Drivers:

Economic instability caused by the U.S.–China trade war has renewed demand for gold. Investors continue to favor gold as the Fed remains inactive and the upcoming CPI data could reshape market expectations.

Geopolitics and Market Sentiment:

President Trump refused to roll back the 145% tariffs on China ahead of the upcoming negotiations in Switzerland. The unresolved trade tensions have reinforced gold’s safe-haven status, though hopes of de-escalation from the talks are putting some pressure on the rally.

Physical Supply & Demand:

The Perth Mint reported April gold sales of 43,714 oz — the highest in five months and up 31% YoY. Silver sales also rose to 723,641 oz. This clearly reflects a resurgence in physical investment demand, supporting real gold prices.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels 

• $3,440: Major resistance zone with a Bearish Order Block
• $3,500: Recent all-time high, psychological resistance

Key Support Levels 

• $3,298: Confluence of Fibonacci level and EMA 89
• $3,212: Strong bounce zone
• $3,167 – $3,125: Important intermediary zones

Technical Indicators:

EMA: 

• EMA 34 (green), EMA 89 (yellow), EMA 200 (blue): Price is currently above all three EMAs on the H4 timeframe → strong confirmation of an ongoing uptrend.
• Notably, EMA 34 crossed above EMA 89 in late April — a “Golden Cross” signaling strengthening bullish momentum.
• The widening gap between the EMAs suggests increasing trend strength.

RSI: Currently at 64.67 — showing upward momentum but still below the overbought threshold (>70). RSI previously bounced from the 40 level in early May, confirming a reversal from correction to rally

Trading Volume:

• Significant spikes in volume occurred during major price surges, especially above $3,212 and $3,298 — confirming strong real buying pressure, not just technical reactions.
• Long-bodied bullish candles with high volume validate quality breakout signals.
• However, volume has slightly declined in recent sessions → suggesting the market is "pausing" at the strong resistance zone around $3,440.

BTC/USD

Prediction: Increase

Bitcoin continues to maintain a strong medium-term uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. After a pullback to the $95,866 zone, the price surged and broke through the supply zone at $97,766, currently trading around $98,709. The price structure remains stable, with the potential to reach $100,000 if momentum is sustained. 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, despite pressure from President Trump.

Chairman Powell emphasized that inflation remains above the 2% long-term target and unemployment has slightly increased, prompting a cautious stance.

Although rate cut expectations to 3.6% by the end of 2025 remain, the Fed currently prioritizes inflation control → neutral to positive for BTC.

Inflation and Market Drivers:

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has returned to “Greed” territory, reflecting a risk-on sentiment.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted strong inflows ($4.41 billion since March 26), confirming institutional capital is flowing into the crypto market.

Geopolitics and Market Sentiment:

Concerns over Trump’s trade policies are weakening business confidence in the U.S.

However, BTC remains a favored alternative safe haven amid macro and political uncertainty.

State-Level Policies in the U.S.:

Arizona and New Hampshire have signed laws establishing state-level Bitcoin reserve funds.

Arizona’s SB 1373 is close to passing, potentially allowing up to 10% of the state budget to be invested in BTC → a strong long-term confidence booster.

Bitcoin Mining & Shift to AI:

Core Scientific reported $580M in net profit despite revenue declines due to the halving.

Companies like Core Scientific, Hive Digital, and Hut 8 are shifting computing power toward AI and HPC, expected to deliver higher long-term margins.

Bitcoin’s 74% YoY price gain has partially offset profit drops from halving.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels 

• $98,848: Most recent high (May 8); breaking this could extend to $99,500 and $100,000
• $102,374: Next resistance level based on price structure

Key Support Levels 

• $97,766: Recently broken out zone; may be retested in the short term
• $95,000: Strong medium-term support, aligned with EMA 89
• $92,095: EMA 200 — strategic support if trend reverses

Technical Indicators:

EMA: Price is above EMA 34 ($95,770), EMA 89 ($94,066), and EMA 200 ($90,977) → solid confirmation of an ongoing uptrend. EMA 34 is currently leading with a steep positive slope.

RSI (H4): Now at 68.43 — nearing the overbought zone but without divergence or clear weakness signals.

Volume: Volume spiked during the breakout candle on May 8, confirming real buying interest. Watch if volume sustains as price approaches $100,000.

 

 

ETHUSD

 

Prediction: Increase

Ethereum is in a short-term uptrend after breaking out from the accumulation zone around $1,790 and rallying above $1,855. The price structure is maintaining higher highs and higher lows. However, it is currently facing pressure at the Supply Zone of $1,855–$1,873, which needs to be breached to confirm the continuation of the uptrend. 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

Monetary Policy & Macroeconomic Impact:

The market remains influenced by concerns over a global recession and ongoing trade wars.

Although the Fed has not changed its policy, expectations of rate cuts continue to drive "risk-on" sentiment.

ETH is recovering alongside Bitcoin as market sentiment improves, particularly with the upcoming U.S.–China trade talks.

Market Drivers & Technology:

Ethereum just activated the Pectra upgrade (May 7), introducing key EIPs such as:

• EIP-7702: Smart accounts
• EIP-7251: Raises staking limit to 2048 ETH
• EIP-7691: Layer 2 improvements

Despite these updates, ETH's price reaction has been muted. Futures premiums remain below 5%, suggesting limited capital inflow.

Ethereum still leads in Total Value Locked (TVL) with $53.7B, but weaker DApp performance and lower network fees have reduced its competitiveness compared to Solana and Tron.

Geopolitics & Market Sentiment:

Robinhood is preparing to launch a blockchain for tokenized securities in Europe, boosting interest in asset tokenization — a trend that could indirectly support ETH.

Conversely, political tensions in the U.S. are rising, as Democrats investigate Trump’s crypto activities, which may dent short-term investor confidence.    

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels 

• $1,873.2: Local high within the supply zone and a major psychological barrier
• $1,945.7: Next target if the breakout succeeds
• $2,111: Expected level if bullish momentum is sustained

Key Support Levels 

• $1,754.2: Strong support aligned with the EMA 200 on H4
• $1,669.1: Medium-term support zone with a Bullish Order Block
• $1,575.3: Deep support in case of a sharp correction

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently at 59.47 — near neutral, with room for further upside. Previously bounced from the 40 zone, confirming recovery.

EMA (H4): Price is above EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 — supporting the uptrend. EMAs are converging and sloping upward, a positive signal.

Volume: Volume spiked alongside the breakout candle, confirming the current rally. If volume persists, ETH may break above the resistance zone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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