Market Analysis

Market Overview

U.S Market

The U.S. market began the week with a cautious tone as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for May 8. Economic data released on Monday showed the ISM Services Index for April surged to 54.8, well above March’s 51.4 and the forecast of 52.0. Notably, the prices paid sub-index jumped to 65.2 — the highest level since February 2022 — signaling renewed inflationary pressures in the services sector, which could influence the Fed’s policy stance.

Although the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, markets are currently pricing in a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts for 2025, with the first move likely in July. However, the outlook remains uncertain as President Trump continues to roll out controversial tariff policies, including a 100% tax on imported films and potential expansion into pharmaceuticals.

Cryptocurrency 

The crypto market remains in an accumulation phase, with Bitcoin trading above $94,000 after pulling back from highs near $98,000. On-chain data from Glassnode shows 88% of BTC supply is in profit, and the MVRV ratio has reset to its long-term average of 1.74. Over 51,000 BTC have been withdrawn from Binance since mid-April, signaling stronger long-term holding sentiment and reduced selling pressure. The Realized Profit/Loss ratio above 1.0 also points to healthy profit-taking without panic.

Several U.S. states, including Florida and Wyoming, have dropped Bitcoin reserve bills, but Arizona still has two active proposals. ETF inflows remain positive, supporting price stability. Overall, market sentiment is steady with medium-term prospects still  leaning bullish.

XAU/USD

Prediction: Increase

Gold continues to maintain a medium-term uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. After a pullback to the support zone around $3,212, price has rebounded strongly and is now trading around $3,362, approaching the key resistance level at $3,380. The price structure remains solid, and a breakout above this zone could further confirm the bullish trend.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:

The market's focus is on the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting this week.

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but investors anticipate the central bank may adopt a more dovish stance if President Trump’s tariff policies continue to pressure inflation and economic growth.

Currently, the market is pricing in a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, with the first cut potentially coming in July.

Inflation and Market Drivers:

Recent data shows a sharp rise in input costs for U.S. businesses, particularly in the service sector, raising inflation concerns.

Trump's administration has announced new tariff measures—such as a 100% tariff on imported films and a planned tax on pharmaceuticals—sparking fears of further price increases. This is leading markets to expect the Fed to adopt more flexible measures to support the economy.

Geopolitics and Market Sentiment:

U.S.-China trade tensions show no signs of easing, and statements from the White House continue to create uncertainty.

Meanwhile, geopolitical instability in hotspots like Israel and Ukraine is boosting demand for safe-haven assets.

Capital flows are shifting away from riskier markets like Latin America back into gold, especially as the U.S. dollar temporarily weakens against Asian currencies like the Taiwan dollar and the yuan.

•  $3,380.692: Gap and Bearish Order Block – main resistance level
•  $3,440.000: Next target if $3,380 is broken
• $3,500.200: Highest price of the year

Key Support Levels 

• $3,298.400: Near-term support at Fibonacci 1.618
•  $3,212.249: Previous swing low
• $3,167.704 and $3,125.243: Deeper supports, aligned with EMA 200

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently at 66.95, nearing overbought territory. Short-term correction may occur, but no strong signs of trend reversal.

EMA (H4): Price has moved back above EMA 34 and EMA 89, signaling a clear short-term recovery. It remains above EMA 200, maintaining the medium-term bullish trend.

Volume: Trading volume has risen significantly in recent sessions, confirming strong buying interest. If volume holds as price tests $3,380, the likelihood of a successful breakout increases

EUR/USD

Prediction: Minor Correction within Medium-Term Uptrend

After a strong rally that pushed EUR/USD up to the 1.1572 peak, the pair is now undergoing a mild correction, currently trading around 1.1322. Price is fluctuating within the 1.1275 – 1.1382 range and has not yet broken above the EMA 34 and 89, indicating short-term selling pressure persists. However, the structure remains above the EMA 200, signaling that the medium-term uptrend is still intact.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:

The market is awaiting the Fed's policy decision scheduled for tomorrow. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, investors are closely watching the policy guidance, particularly in light of inflationary pressures from new tariffs.

Market expectations point to a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts during 2025, possibly starting in July.

Inflation and Market Drivers:

Input price indices in the U.S. have surged—highlighting inflationary effects from President Trump’s tariff policies, such as a 100% import tax on foreign films.

Investors expect the Fed to remain flexible in response to price risks but are also waiting for more macroeconomic data and the White House’s reaction.

Geopolitics and Market Sentiment:

The U.S. dollar is under pressure due to the surge of Asian currencies, especially the Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan. This suggests that Asian economies may allow stronger domestic currencies to gain leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S.

Market sentiment remains uneasy due to inconsistent tariff policies from the White House and lack of real progress in U.S.-China trade talks.

Eurozone Economic Health:

Markets are monitoring April’s PMI data from France, Germany, the U.K., and the broader Eurozone. These figures are expected to reflect the impact of U.S. tariff policies on European supply chains.

Stocks of companies like Ferrari and Telenor are also under watch, following Ford’s downward revision of its annual forecast.

• 1.13828: Immediate resistance, price has frequently rejected from this level
• 1.14842 – 1.15729: Strong Bearish Order Block with heavy selling pressure
• EMA 34 (1.1333) & EMA 89 (1.1313): Short-term dynamic resistance levels

Key Support Levels 

• 1.12753: Nearest support
• EMA 200 (1.1166): Medium-term support preserving the uptrend
• 1.10759: Critical support if a deeper correction occurs

Technical Indicators:

RSI: At 48.88, near neutral—no strong momentum; the market is awaiting the Fed’s signals

EMA (H4): Price is below EMA 34 & 89 → favors short-term correction; price remains above EMA

200 → medium-term uptrend remains intact

Volume: Slight decline in volume → indicates market indecision, awaiting breakout confirmation

 

BTC/USD

 

Prediction: Short-term Correction

After failing to break through the supply zone at $97,760 – $97,938, Bitcoin has retraced to around $93,500. The price is currently hovering near $94,500, close to the H4 EMA 89. While the short-term correction may continue, the medium-term uptrend remains intact as long as BTC stays above the EMA 200 level ($90,355).

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Inflation and Market Drivers:

Data from Glassnode shows that 88% of the BTC supply is in profit — indicating a strong market foundation.

The MVRV ratio has returned to its average of 1.74, suggesting the market is in an accumulation phase following profit-taking.

Investor sentiment remains positive, supported by continued capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a PnL ratio above 1.0.

Geopolitics and Market Sentiment:

Political developments in the U.S. are affecting investor sentiment: Florida has officially withdrawn strategic Bitcoin reserve bills, dampening expectations of state-level BTC purchases.

However, the withdrawal of over 51,000 BTC from Binance indicates strong accumulation behavior — investors are opting to hold long-term rather than trade short-term.

Arizona still has two active bills that could support Bitcoin reserve strategies at the state level.

On-Chain Data & Investor Behavior:

According to Glassnode, 88% of the BTC supply is in profit, underscoring the robustness of current holding structures.

Over 51,000 BTC have been withdrawn from Binance since mid-April, signaling increased accumulation and lower short-term selling pressure.

Institutional Flows & ETFs:

Net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain positive, especially between April 21 and May 1, with several sessions seeing over $2 billion in inflows.

Institutions are moving BTC off exchanges into cold storage, suggesting preparation for the next bullish cycle — with prices still 13% below all-time highs.

• $95,000 – $95,750: Immediate resistance zone, aligning with EMA 34 and 50% Fib retracement from $97,885
• $96,800: Next level to watch if breakout occurs
• $97,760 – $97,938: Supply zone – major barrier for further upside continuation

Key Support Levels 

• $93,414 (H4 EMA 89): Short-term support currently being tested
• $93,200 – $92,095: Strong support if correction deepens
• $90,355 (EMA 200): Medium-term support — a break below this could shift the trend structure

Technical Indicators:

EMA (H4): Price is below EMA 34 and EMA 89 ⇒ Indicates short-term correction; still above EMA

200 ⇒ Medium-term uptrend remains intact

RSI: Around 44.63, approaching oversold territory, but no bullish divergence yet ⇒ Room for further downside, though selling pressure is weakening

Volume: Decreasing volume during recent declines ⇒ Selling momentum is fading. If volume increases at the $93,500 support zone, a technical rebound could emerge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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