Market Analysis

XAU/USD

Prediction: Corrective decline

Gold prices are currently in a corrective phase, hovering around $3,230/oz, near a two-week low. Despite increased selling pressure that has led to losses in six of the last eight sessions, the medium-term trend structure remains bullish with higher lows forming. The price is reacting around the key support area of $3,212 and still has potential for a rebound if this level holds. Investors should monitor reactions here and the upcoming NFP data to reassess the trend.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact

Recent data shows signs of U.S. economic weakness, with Q1 GDP contracting and the PCE index remaining nearly flat in March.

The market expects the Fed may cut interest rates if the labor market weakens, especially if today's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report comes in below expectations.

According to TD Securities, mild stagflation (recession + inflation) could prompt the Fed to loosen policy, which would support gold prices.

Inflation and Market Drivers

President Trump's signing of an executive order to cut auto tariffs and trade negotiations with several countries have helped ease short-term inflation pressures, reducing safe-haven demand for gold.

However, experts suggest new trade deals may come too late to prevent economic recession and rising inflation.

In this context, gold continues to be viewed as a long-term hedge if inflation risks return.

Geopolitical Factors and Market Sentiment

News of potential resumed U.S.-China trade talks has reduced short-term demand for safe-haven assets.

Nonetheless, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and key partners like China, Japan, and South Korea remain unresolved, encouraging capital flows away from the USD and U.S. Treasury bonds.

This trend may provide medium- to long-term support for gold.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Key Resistance Levels

• $3,298.400: 1.618 Fibonacci extension and recent high – must be broken to resume a strong bullish trend.
• $3,380.692: Gap area and Bearish Order Block – strong resistance with potential selling pressure.
• $3,440.000 – $3,500.200: Psychological resistance in the event of a breakout.

Key Support Levels

• $3,212.249: Current short-term support zone, a critical reaction area
• $3,167.835: Strong support aligned with the 200 EMA – a key level protecting the medium-term uptrend.
• $3,117.400 – $3,057.410: Stronger support zone, previously served as an accumulation base.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently at 40.08, slightly rebounding from oversold territory (below 30), indicating returning buying interest, though not yet a confirmed reversal.

Volume: 

• Volume has increased during recent strong down sessions, indicating heavy selling pressure.
• Rebound sessions have shown weaker volume, suggesting buyer caution – further confirmation is needed.

Price Action:

• Price is reacting around the $3,212 support zone.
• If it holds, a recovery toward the $3,298 – $3,380 area is possible.
• If it breaks down, the $3,167 zone should be monitored for safer buying opportunities.

Investors are advised to wait for market reaction after the NFP report before making significant entries, as this data may determine gold’s short-term direction.

Gold is currently undergoing a correction but has not yet broken the medium-term uptrend. A rebound scenario remains valid if the price holds above $3,212. The upcoming U.S. labor data will be a key factor in determining the next move.

EUR/USD

Prediction: Mildly Bearish / Neutral

The EUR/USD pair is undergoing a corrective decline following a strong previous rally. The price has dropped below the resistance zone at 1.1382 and is currently testing the key support level at 1.1275. The EMA 34 and EMA 89 are giving bearish signals with the price trading below them, while the EMA 200 continues to act as a dynamic long-term support. The medium-term trend has shifted to neutral, and traders should observe price action around the current support to determine the next direction.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact

The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield has climbed to 3.701% (+8bps), reflecting expectations that the Fed won’t rush into cutting interest rates, as economic data has not deteriorated significantly.

Tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show a gain of 130,000 jobs – weaker than the previous month but still strong enough for the Fed to maintain its current stance.

The Fed is still waiting for more data on inflation and labor before making any clear moves. As a result, the U.S. dollar has regained support, putting pressure on EUR/USD.

Inflation and Market Drivers

Weakness in U.S. manufacturing data (PMI fell to 48.7) signals growth risks, though not severe enough to trigger an immediate policy shift.

Input inflation remains elevated due to higher import costs from tariffs, keeping expectations alive that the Fed may maintain higher rates for longer.

Geopolitical Factors and Market Sentiment

U.S.-China trade tensions appear to be easing as both sides show willingness to negotiate. This has improved global risk sentiment, reducing safe-haven demand for EUR and gold.

The Japanese yen has weakened due to the BoJ lowering its growth forecasts, while the U.S. dollar has strengthened broadly.

The USD has posted its third straight weekly gain, as returning risk appetite supports capital flows into the greenback.

In the long term, if U.S.-China negotiations progress positively, EUR may face further downside pressure as risk-seeking capital flows back into the USD and U.S. assets.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Key Resistance Levels

• 1.13828: Nearest resistance zone, aligned with EMA 34 and EMA 89.
• 1.14842 – 1.15697: Strong Bearish Order Block, previously caused significant selling pressure.
• 1.15729: Recent major high – long-term resistance.

Key Support Levels

• 1.12753: Current support level – a break below could confirm a bearish continuation.
• 1.10759: Dynamic support aligned with the EMA 200 – key level for medium-term trend direction.
• 1.09461 – 1.08747: Strong historical support zone (former supply area).

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently around 39.7, indicating bearish momentum still dominates. However, there are signs of mild divergence, hinting at a possible technical rebound if the current support holds.

Volume: Slight increase at the current bottom zone suggests some dip-buying interest is emerging, though a confirmed reversal is still lacking.

Price Action:

• Price is testing the 1.1275 support level.
• If this level holds and a bullish reversal candlestick pattern appears, short-term buying opportunities toward the 1.138 – 1.148 zone could emerge.
• If price breaks below 1.1275 with high volume, traders should consider trend-following short positions, targeting deeper support around 1.1075 – 1.0946.

BTC/USD

Prediction: Bullish

Bitcoin remains in an uptrend on the 4H chart, maintaining a structure of higher highs and higher lows. The price is currently undergoing a pullback after hitting strong resistance around the $95,857–$97,766 supply zone. Selling pressure has begun to emerge at this level, though it hasn't broken the overall bullish structure. Investors should closely monitor price reactions at nearby support levels to assess whether the uptrend will continue.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact

The market is increasingly expecting the Fed to expand liquidity soon to support financial markets, especially after U.S. Manufacturing PMI dropped to a five-month low. This has boosted speculation that the Fed could restart asset purchases, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Additionally, bullish sentiment from equity markets, coupled with stable bond yields, has driven more capital into the crypto market recently.

Market Drivers and Influential News

Technical Breakout: BTC confirmed a breakout above the $95,500 resistance, establishing a new high at $97,405 and is now consolidating in that area.

Institutional Support: Despite posting a $4.2 billion net loss in Q1 2025, MicroStrategy (Strategy) announced plans to raise another $84 billion to continue purchasing BTC, showing strong institutional confidence.

Crypto Market Sentiment: The total crypto market cap has risen by 8.5% since March 2025 and is currently outperforming U.S. equities.

Correlation with Equity Markets

Over the past 10 days, Bitcoin has shown a high correlation with the S&P 500, although in the long term, the crypto market continues to demonstrate superior independent strength. This reflects how investors still consider crypto a high-risk but attractive asset in an improving liquidity environment.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

• $97,470 – $97,766: Strong current resistance (supply zone). A daily close above this zone with significant volume could lead BTC toward higher levels.
• $98,800: Next resistance following a breakout above $97,500.
• $100,000: A key psychological and technical milestone.

Key Support Levels

• $96,500: Immediate support, aligning with the ascending trendline on the 1H chart.
• $95,200 – $95,500: Strong support zone, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci level and the EMA 34 on the 4H chart.
• $94,500: Strong base support and previous swing low that sparked the recent rally.

Technical Indicators:

RSI (4H): At 65.19, not yet overbought but approaching it, indicating further upside potential. The upward slope reflects bullish momentum, though any divergence near resistance should be watched closely.

Volume: Remains healthy since the breakout from $92,000, though starting to plateau as price nears $97,500. A confirmed breakout should ideally be accompanied by a volume surge to validate continued bullish momentum.

Price Action:

• BTC is currently consolidating just below the $97,500 – $97,766 resistance zone. A confirmed breakout above this range could provide a buy signal targeting $98,800 and $100,000.
• In case of a pullback, the $95,200 – $96,000 area offers a key buy zone for re-entry in line with the trend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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