Market Analysis

Market Overview

United States

The U.S. market is under pressure from trade uncertainties and interest rate policies. U.S.-China tensions have escalated after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that tariffs would not be reduced anytime soon, raising fears of a potential recession. The Dow Jones fell slightly by 0.3% in the latest session, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.95%, the lowest in over a month.    

The Federal Reserve has yet to signal a clear plan for rate cuts, although markets are pricing in two reductions in 2025, totaling 45 basis points. A weaker U.S. dollar, with the DXY index down 0.1%, has supported gold prices, which rebounded to $3,335/oz.

Cryptocurrency

The crypto market is in a recovery and stabilization phase, with positive signals from both technical analysis and macroeconomic factors. Bitcoin is holding above the $93,000 level after a strong breakout, while technical indicators suggest the potential for continued upward momentum. 

Institutional capital continues to flow into the market, especially highlighted by the launch of Twenty One Capital – a firm holding 42,000 BTC backed by Tether, SoftBank, and Bitfinex, positioning itself as a direct competitor to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin reserve strategy.

Moreover, the recovery of $2.7 million worth of mining rigs in the U.S. and the ongoing accumulation trend by national governments highlight Bitcoin’s growing recognition as a long-term strategic asset amid rising inflation and global economic volatility.

XAU/USD

Prediction: Short-Term Correction

Gold prices remain in a long-term uptrend, with a structure of higher highs and higher lows since early 2025. After hitting a historic peak at $3,500.200, prices corrected to around $3,298.400 and are now rebounding. The appearance of a gap and a Bearish Order Block (OB) around $3,380 could increase short-term profit-taking pressure, but the long-term uptrend remains intact as long as prices hold above the $3,236–$3,298 support zone.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed Influence

President Trump affirmed he would not fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, reassuring the market about the independence of monetary policy.

At the same time, pressure from the ongoing trade war has caused the Trump administration to show signs of softening, though no official tariff reductions have been made.

The DXY (US Dollar Index) dropped 0.1%, which supports gold as it becomes cheaper for foreign investors.

Inflation and Market Drivers

Gold has surged over 30% since the beginning of the year, while the gold-to-silver ratio is at its highest level since 1994 (excluding the COVID period), reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets.

Gold prices in India have exceeded 1 lakh Rs/10g, boosting demand for inflation-hedging investments across Asia.

US Treasury yields have slightly declined, increasing gold's attractiveness amid global growth concerns.

Geopolitical and Market Sentiment

The US-China trade tensions remain unresolved, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasizing no intention to unilaterally reduce tariffs.

Trump’s decision to exempt certain automakers from tariffs highlights the mounting political and economic pressure on trade negotiations.

Investors continue to “buy the dip” after sharp declines, suggesting that overall market sentiment still leans toward a medium- to long-term uptrend.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

• $3,380.692: Gap and Bearish Order Block – critical short-term resistance. A breakout could lead to a move toward $3,440 and beyond.
• $3,440.000: The next resistance level if prices continue their strong upward trend
• $3,500.200: Historical high – long-term target if the uptrend continues.

Key Support Levels

• $3,298.400: Nearest support – the level from which the price rebounded, confirming its support role.
• $3,236.513 (EMA 89): Important dynamic support. Losing this level increases risk of a deeper drop toward the $3,167–$3,117 zone.
• $3,125.415 (EMA 200): Strongest support on the 4H chart – the final line to maintain the medium-term uptrend.

Technical Indicators:

RSI is currently around 56.33 (slightly above the neutral 50 level), suggesting that buying momentum is returning, though not yet strong.

Price Action:

• Price is rebounding from the $3,298 support and approaching the $3,380 resistance gap zone.
• A successful breakout above this resistance would strengthen the bullish signal → near-term targets: $3,440 – $3,500.
• If rejected at $3,380, price could pull back to the $3,298–$3,236 region. Watch price reactions to identify safe entry points.

 

 

BTC/USD

Prediction: Increase

Bitcoin is currently in a strong uptrend, with a clear formation of higher highs and higher lows. After breaking out of the resistance zone at $88,756, BTC has remained above key EMAs and surpassed the $93,000 level. Although there's slight consolidation around $94,000, the bullish structure remains intact. The RSI is currently above 70, indicating possible short-term correction before resuming the upward trend. 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

Political News and Cybercrime

The recovery of $2.7 million worth of stolen Bitcoin mining rigs at Los Angeles airport highlights the high value and growing demand for mining hardware within the crypto ecosystem. While this event doesn't directly impact BTC price, it underscores Bitcoin’s increasing role in the modern economy and organized crime.

Institutional Inflows and New Companies

Twenty One Capital, a newly launched company led by Jack Mallers and backed by Tether, SoftBank, and Cantor Fitzgerald, has disclosed an initial holding of 42,000 BTC. The firm is challenging MicroStrategy as a dominant Bitcoin investment vehicle, sparking speculative interest from institutional investors.

Shares of Cantor Equity Partners (CEP) surged by 54.2% following the announcement, reflecting high market expectations.

Institutional Momentum

There’s a visible shift from retail investors to national and institutional funds. Sovereign wealth funds, governments (e.g., El Salvador, Bhutan), and corporations like Strategy and MARA continue to accumulate Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency instability.

Market Sentiment

Bitcoin is increasingly being compared to gold for its scarcity and store-of-value characteristics, which is strengthening long-term investor confidence. Its solid position among the top five global assets further supports the ongoing uptrend.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

• $94,650: Recent swing high – a breakout here could open the path to $95,500 or $96,200.
• $95,000 – $97,766: Strong supply zone – critical to monitor if price approaches this region.

Key Support Levels

• $93,000 – $92,000: Short-term support aligned with the ascending trendline and EMAs.
• $88,756: Medium-term support – previously a strong resistance that has now turned into support.
• $85,593: Major support coinciding with a Bullish Order Block (OB) area.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently at 72.41 – in the overbought zone, suggesting a potential short-term pullback.

Volume: Increased significantly during the breakout, followed by accumulation – a positive sign for trend continuation.

Price Action:

• BTC is consolidating above $93,000 after a strong surge. If it holds the $92,000–$93,000 zone and rebounds, short-term targets are $94,650 – $95,500.
• A break below $92,000 could lead to deeper corrections toward $90,500 or $88,800.
• BTC/USD is sustaining a strong uptrend, supported by institutional inflows and favorable macroeconomic context.

ETH/USD

Prediction: Increase

Ethereum (ETH) is currently in a clear short-term uptrend on the 4H chart after breaking through key MA and EMA levels. The price has surpassed the strong resistance zone at $1,750–$1,800 and is now consolidating around $1,785–$1,800. Technical signals suggest ETH could continue its recovery momentum if it holds the nearest support zone.

Although Ethereum experienced a significant decline since early 2025, the sharp rebound from the $1,415 bottom in early April is gradually forming a new bullish structure. With a break above the 200 EMA on the 4H timeframe and RSI confirmation, the uptrend is gaining strength.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Overall Market and Macro Factors

Crypto sentiment returning: After weeks of sluggish trading, Ethereum surged 12% within 24 hours, breaking the psychological $1,800 barrier. This is the highest level since early April 2025 and opens up expectations for a potential long-term rally.

Bitcoin influence: Bitcoin’s breakout above $90,000 has triggered a wave of altcoin rallies, with ETH among the top performers.

Improved market sentiment: On-chain data from IntoTheBlock indicates that selling pressure around $1,860 is relatively light, creating favorable conditions for ETH to target the $2,000 mark.

Inflation & Economic Policy

Despite ongoing US-China trade tensions and geopolitical instability, Ethereum is showing positive divergence compared to traditional assets, reflecting a trend of capital shifting toward digital assets.

Cybersecurity and Investor Confidence

The LAPD’s seizure of $2.7 million in stolen Bitcoin mining rigs highlights the increasing prevalence of crypto-related crimes. At the same time, it signals growing attention from authorities and the public toward securing the digital asset ecosystem.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

• $1,945.7 – $1,952.9: Strong resistance zone, representing the most recent swing high in the medium-term trend. A breakout could expand the rally toward $2,000.
• $1,863.4: Short-term resistance. Breaking this level would confirm a further breakout.
• $1,800 – $1,802: Currently acting as a mild profit-taking zone where the market is reacting.

Key Support Levels

• $1,754.2: Critical short-term support. A breakdown here could lead to a retest of the EMA and lower support zones.
• $1,669.1: Strong support aligned with EMA89. This level was a previous high, now acting as support.
• $1,575.3: Medium-term support zone. If the trend reverses, buying interest could reappear here.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently at 72.29 – in the overbought zone, indicating a potential short-term pullback within the next 1–2 sessions. However, there is no clear bearish divergence yet.

Volume: Recent breakout candles (April 22–23) show strong bullish pressure with large candle bodies, confirming buying strength.

Price Action:

• If price retests the $1,754 – $1,769 zone and rebounds, it could present a short-term long opportunity with targets at $1,863 and $1,945.
• If RSI declines further and price breaks below $1,754, it’s better to stay on the sidelines and watch for reactions at the $1,669 – $1,675 zone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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