Market Analysis

XAU/USD Bullish Momentum: Safe-Haven Demand Pushes Gold Prices Higher

Dupoin · 22 Apr162.6K Views

Market Overview

Europe

In the European market, the EUR/USD reached its highest level since November 2021, fueled by a 1.35% drop in the USD. The pair broke through a key resistance zone between 1.1482 and 1.15158, turning it into support. If the price remains above this level, further upward movement is expected, with the next target near 1.1665-1.16926.

Meanwhile, gold prices surged, reaching record highs above USD 3450. This rally is driven by central bank buying, increasing geopolitical tensions, and ETF purchases. The USD is under pressure due to concerns over the reliability of the US and its currency, with central banks diversifying their reserves into gold.

Cryptocurrency

The crypto market is currently experiencing strong growth, with Bitcoin surpassing key resistance levels such as $88,000 and continuing to target higher levels like $90,500 and $92,000. "Whales" in the market are actively withdrawing funds from exchanges, creating upward pressure on prices. While the market is experiencing a "fear" sentiment, fundamental factors such as the SEC's policy changes and the recovery of major exchanges are reinforcing the positive trend.

Major events like the WazirX lawsuit and moves by large exchanges are influencing market sentiment. Developments from blockchain platforms, particularly Ethereum, are also creating new opportunities in the DeFi market. The current "fear" sentiment may cause market correct, but fundamental factors support an upward trend in the long term.

XAU/USD

Prediction: Increase

Gold prices continue their strong upward trend, setting a new record high above $3,485.03/oz. This significant increase is driven by economic and political concerns, particularly President Trump's criticisms of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have dampened risk sentiment and pushed investors into gold, a safe-haven asset. Although there may be a short-term correction, given the current economic instability, gold remains in an uptrend and could continue toward the $3,500/oz mark.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Impact from the Fed:

President Trump continues to criticize Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and calls for immediate rate cuts to prevent an economic slowdown.

The conflict between Trump and the Fed has created instability in the economy, eroding investor confidence in U.S. assets and increasing demand for gold.

The market is awaiting statements from Fed officials this week to learn more about the monetary policy and the Fed's independence.

Inflation and Market Dynamics:

Inflation-related factors and global economic instability, particularly from the U.S.-China trade war and Trump’s tariff measures, are putting pressure on the USD and supporting gold prices.

Concerns about global economic growth and stagnation due to trade conflicts are increasing interest in gold as a safe asset.

Geopolitical and Market Sentiment:

The U.S.-China trade tensions continue to escalate. China accuses the U.S. of tariff abuse and warns countries not to sign economic agreements with the U.S. if they affect China’s interests.

These events are increasing global uncertainty, making gold a safe-haven asset and weakening confidence in other risky assets.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

$3,509.670: A significant resistance level, Fibo 2.618

Key Support Levels

$3,400.000: The nearest support level. If the price drops below this, a short-term correction could occur.
$3,298.400: A stronger support level. If the price fails to hold above $3,400 and continues to drop to this level, a deeper correction could occur.
$3,117.400: The next support level, which could be tested if the downtrend persists.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: 86.89, indicating that the gold market is overbought. A correction could occur if RSI drops below 70.

The current trading volume remains high, showing strong investor interest. However, if volume decreases, a correction could appear.

EMA 34: Below price, supporting the uptrend. EMA 89 and EMA 200: Both of these EMAs are still below the price, reinforcing the strong uptrend.

Price Action:

Wait for reactions at key support levels: If the price corrects and rebounds at support levels like $3,400 or $3,298, it could be an opportunity to buy.
A correction is possible: With RSI at an overbought level, a short-term correction could occur, especially if the price drops below $3,400.

Gold is in a strong uptrend and has reached record highs. However, with RSI in overbought territory, a short-term correction may occur. Investors should monitor key support levels and prepare a trading strategy if prices correct to those levels.

BTC/USD

Prediction: Increase

Bitcoin prices are in a strong uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows recently. The price has surpassed the $88,800 resistance level and is currently trading near $88,000, showing signs of continued upward movement. The nearest support level is currently $85,500. However, if the price continues to stay above key support levels, it may continue the uptrend and approach higher levels such as $90,500 or $92,000 in the short term.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed’s Impact:

The Fed maintains a cautious monetary policy: The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to maintain a cautious monetary policy, with expectations of no rate changes in 2025, especially given that inflation remains high.

Expectations for rate cuts: Investors expect the Fed may cut interest rates in the future, which would reduce the attractiveness of the USD and support risk assets like Bitcoin.

Activity of the “Whales”:

Whales move 41 million Pi Coins: Whales have withdrawn 41 million Pi Coins worth about $27 million from exchanges in 48 hours, indicating an increase in demand and expectations of value for these cryptocurrencies.

Impact on value: Reducing the number of Pi Coins on exchanges will increase the value of this coin if demand continues to remain stable without mass sell-offs.

SEC’s Direction and Policy Change on Bitcoin:

Paul Atkins appointed SEC chairman: Paul Atkins has officially become the chairman of the SEC, and it is expected that there will be a more lenient policy toward cryptocurrencies compared to his predecessor.

Market impact: If the SEC adopts a more flexible policy, the cryptocurrency market will benefit from a stable regulatory environment, which could boost the development of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Blockchain Platforms and DeFi Applications:

Ethereum and Vitalik Buterin’s improvements: Vitalik Buterin has made proposals to improve Ethereum, particularly in optimizing the scalability and performance of the blockchain. This could have a positive impact on demand for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

Impact on DeFi: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) applications are growing, creating opportunities for Bitcoin and Ethereum to be the main currencies in this space.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

$88,800: This is an important resistance level, the price has tested it and is currently trying to break above it.
$89,500: If it breaks through $88,800, the next resistance level is $89,500, continuing the uptrend.
$92,000: This is the potential highest resistance level in the short term.

Key Support Levels

$85,500: This is the current key support level. If the price falls below this level, a deeper correction may occur.
$84,200: A stronger support level if the price continues to correct.

Technical Indicators:

RSI is at 60.55, indicating the market is not overbought, but caution is needed as there could be a correction if RSI approaches 70.

EMA 34 and EMA 89 are supporting the uptrend. If the price stays above these EMA levels, the uptrend will be reinforced. EMA 200 remains below the current price, supporting the long-term uptrend.

Current trading volume remains steady, showing strong participation from large investors. If volume increases significantly, the uptrend will be reinforced.

Price Action:

The current BTC price is consolidating in the $88,000 - $88,800 range.
If the price breaks above the $88,800 resistance and maintains above it, we can expect a strong move toward the $89,500 and $92,000 resistance levels.
If it fails to stay above $88,000, the price could correct to the nearest support levels.

BTC/USD

Prediction: Increase

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed’s Impact:

Expectations for rate cuts: Investors expect the Fed may cut interest rates in the future, which would reduce the attractiveness of the USD and support risk assets like Bitcoin.

Activity of the “Whales”:

Impact on value: Reducing the number of Pi Coins on exchanges will increase the value of this coin if demand continues to remain stable without mass sell-offs.

SEC’s Direction and Policy Change on Bitcoin:

Blockchain Platforms and DeFi Applications:

Impact on DeFi: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) applications are growing, creating opportunities for Bitcoin and Ethereum to be the main currencies in this space.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

$88,800: This is an important resistance level, the price has tested it and is currently trying to break above it.
$89,500: If it breaks through $88,800, the next resistance level is $89,500, continuing the uptrend.
$92,000: This is the potential highest resistance level in the short term.

Key Support Levels

$85,500: This is the current key support level. If the price falls below this level, a deeper correction may occur.
$84,200: A stronger support level if the price continues to correct.

Technical Indicators:

RSI is at 60.55, indicating the market is not overbought, but caution is needed as there could be a correction if RSI approaches 70.

EMA 34 and EMA 89 are supporting the uptrend. If the price stays above these EMA levels, the uptrend will be reinforced. EMA 200 remains below the current price, supporting the long-term uptrend.

Current trading volume remains steady, showing strong participation from large investors. If volume increases significantly, the uptrend will be reinforced.

Price Action:

The current BTC price is consolidating in the $88,000 - $88,800 range
If the price breaks above the $88,800 resistance and maintains above it, we can expect a strong move toward the $89,500 and $92,000 resistance levels
If it fails to stay above $88,000, the price could correct to the nearest support levels.

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