Market Analysis

Market Overview

China

China's market remains subdued with the yuan (CNY and CNH) trading around 7.30/USD amid persistent Sino-US trade tensions. President Trump struck an optimistic tone about a potential deal within weeks, following Beijing’s outlined conditions for resuming talks. Q1 economic data surprised to the upside—GDP, industrial production, and retail sales all exceeded expectations—highlighting the positive impact of ongoing policy stimulus.

However, the yuan has declined 0.7% in April, pressured by escalating U.S. tariffs. The PBOC has slightly loosened its grip on the currency, allowing the midpoint to weaken but still setting it above forecasts to stabilize markets. USD/CNH may see heightened volatility ahead depending on trade negotiations, though the medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic if China’s recovery continues.

Cryptocurrency

The crypto market on April 18, 2025, is showing signs of a slight recovery, with Bitcoin holding around the $84,700 mark. The bullish momentum is supported by expectations of a breakout above the $85,200 resistance, along with positive regulatory developments such as Arizona moving closer to passing a Bitcoin reserve bill. However, slowing capital inflows (weaker Realized Cap growth) indicate that investor sentiment remains cautious.

On the flip side, Slovenia’s proposal to impose a 25% tax on crypto profits has raised concerns about stifling market growth. Overall, the market is currently in a consolidation phase, awaiting further data to confirm the next trend.

BTC/USD

Prediction: Slightly Bullish (Accumulation in an Uptrend)

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating in a narrow range around $84,700–$85,000. The market structure remains in a medium-term uptrend with higher lows, and BTC is testing a key resistance zone at $85,200–$85,500. If this zone is broken, the price could rally toward $86,500–$88,800. However, the upward momentum is showing signs of slowing down, as evidenced by a deceleration in Realized Cap growth and reduced capital inflows.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin Regulation:

Arizona is moving closer to passing the Bitcoin Reserve Bill (SB 1025), allowing the state government to invest up to 10% of its funds in BTC—this adds legal support and a positive sentiment in the U.S.

However, political risk lingers as Arizona's governor threatens to veto all bills unless the social welfare budget is passed, potentially delaying the Bitcoin bill.

Global Tax & Legal Environment:

Slovenia proposes a 25% tax on crypto trading profits, which could negatively affect retail sentiment and slow market growth in Europe.

On-Chain Data & Investor Sentiment:

Bitcoin’s Realized Cap hits a new ATH at $872B, but monthly growth has slowed to just 0.9%, down from 13%, signaling cautious investor sentiment and a lack of new inflows.

Historically, a slowdown in Realized Cap has preceded corrections (e.g., mid-2024), so a mild correction remains possible.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels 

• $85,200: Nearest resistance, overlaps with 61.8% Fib and descending trendline breakout point
• $85,500: Stronger resistance, previously rejected multiple times.
• $86,500–$88,800: Wider supply zone where selling pressure may emerge.

Key Support Levels 

• $84,500: Short-term dynamic support (H4 EMA 200). ● $83,200: Strong structural support, recent low.
• $81,800: Strategic support – a break here could reverse the medium-term trend.
• $80,000: Major psychological level and H4 demand zone.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: At 55.46, still below overbought – suggesting room for upside. Sideways RSI shows consolidation; a breakout is needed for direction.

Volume: Stable but not rising significantly—if a breakout occurs without volume, risk of a false breakout increases.

Price Action:

• BTC is forming a horizontal accumulation range between $84,500–$85,500.
• Break above $85,500 with strong volume → target $86,500–$88,800.
• Failure to break → test of support at $84,000–$83,200.

Buy Strategy

• Wait for a clear breakout and 4H candle close above $85,500 → target $86,500–$88,000.
• Alternatively, buy around $84,000–$83,200 if price retraces to support.

Sell Strategy:

• If price fails to break $85,500 and RSI divergence appears → consider shorting toward $83,200–$81,800.

 

ETH/USD

Prediction: Bearish

Ethereum remains in a medium-term downtrend with lower highs and trading below key EMAs (34, 89, 200). Despite a slight rebound to $1,584 (+0.72%), it lacks momentum to break resistance at EMA 34. Price action below resistance suggests the market is waiting for a catalyst before making a move. The $1,575 support zone is being tested repeatedly; a breakdown could trigger deeper losses.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy & Macro Factors:

Global macro uncertainty persists, especially after President Trump’s new tariff policies announced in April. This has hurt investor sentiment and risk assets like crypto. Ethereum remains down

52.63% year-to-date.

Network Activity & Fees:

ETH gas fees have dropped to a 5-year low (~$0.17), signaling weak network activity and reduced user engagement—reflecting a risk-averse market with limited new capital.

Pectra Upgrade & Long-term Outlook:

Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade (May 7) aims to enhance Layer-2 scalability, reduce fees, and support stablecoin payments. While promising, it’s unlikely to reverse the short-term trend.

Investor Sentiment & Whale Activity:

On-chain data shows whales sold ~143,000 ETH in the past week, adding selling pressure. Many long-term holders are also exiting the $1,500–$1,700 range, weakening market support and increasing downside risk.

Positive Potential:

Huaxia Fund’s Ether ETF staking in Hong Kong (starting May 15) is a long-term positive signal, but short-term impact remains muted due to prevailing negative sentiment.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels 

• $1,598 – EMA 34
• $1,669 – EMA 89
• $1,800 – EMA 200 and major confluence resistance

Key Support Level

• $1,575.3 – nearest support
• $1,492.9 – mid-term support and demand zone
• $1,416.8 – major support; loss of this level could lead to yearly lows

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently at 45.61, below neutral 50, signaling weak upward momentum. RSI previously recovered from oversold but failed to sustain the rebound.

Volume: Remains low, reflecting indecision and lack of momentum on both buying and selling sides.

Price Action:

• ETH is range-bound between $1,575–$1,600.
• Break below $1,575 could trigger a drop to $1,492.
• Break above $1,600 with confirmation could target $1,669.

Strategy

• Short: Sell if price breaks $1,575 with high volume → target $1,492.
• Buy: Wait for breakout above EMA 34 ($1,600) with strong volume before entering long positions.

AUD/USD

Prediction: Bullish (Short-term), but facing strong resistance

AUD/USD has seen a 7-day winning streak before showing signs of a mild pullback near the resistance zone at 0.63879–0.63937. The price structure remains in a short-term uptrend with higher lows. However, the emergence of a strong supply zone may create temporary selling pressure. A breakout above this zone would confirm the continuation of the uptrend. Conversely, if rejected here, the price could retrace to lower support levels.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy – RBA & Fed:

Weaker-than-expected labor data in Australia has reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the May meeting. Some investors even anticipate a cut of up to 50 basis points.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains a cautious stance and has not signaled any imminent rate cuts, supporting a mild rebound in the USD toward the end of the week.

Market Sentiment & Global Factors:

President Trump has indicated a potential easing of trade tensions with China, suggesting possible tariff reductions. This has improved market sentiment and supported risk assets like the Australian dollar (AUD).

However, uncertainty in trade policy and the impact of escalating tariffs continue to pose a threat to global growth, which may negatively affect AUD.

Market Conditions:

The market remains thin due to the Easter holiday.

The USD saw a slight rebound, supported by the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.311% and a recovery in U.S. stock markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500).

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

• 0.63879–0.63937: Supply zone and previous top – strong short-term resistance.
• 0.64522: Next target if breakout occurs.

Key Support Levels 

• 0.62955: Nearest support – previously broken resistance.
• 0.61741: Medium-term support near EMA 200.
• 0.61108 – 0.59917: Deeper support if correction deepens.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently at 58.75 – not overbought, but showing signs of slowing momentum. RSI previously exceeded 70 and is now pulling back → momentum weakness should be monitored.

EMA: EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 have formed a bullish crossover → confirming an ongoing uptrend. Price is above all three EMAs, which provides strong support for buyers.

Volume:

• Remains high before the holiday, showing continued interest in AUD/USD.
• Post-holiday sessions need to be watched closely to assess the market’s reaction at the supply zone.

Price Action:

• Price is currently retesting the supply zone.
• If a rejection candle forms here → consider a short position targeting 0.62955.
• If the price clearly breaks above 0.6394 with strong volume → consider a long position with a near-term target of 0.64522.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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