Market Analysis

Market Overview

Australia

The Australian market is under pressure following the March jobs report, which showed a gain of only 32,200 new jobs—below expectations. Although the unemployment rate remained low at 4.1%, the weak employment growth has reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates in May. Some investors are even pricing in a potential 50 basis point cut, given the gloomy global economic outlook and rising pressure from tariff policies.

In addition, the Australian dollar weakened as the U.S. dollar rebounded after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, signaling no urgency to ease rates. Geopolitical risks and the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy have further shaken market sentiment, weighing on Australia’s currency and economic outlook in the near term.

Cryptocurrency

The cryptocurrency market is currently in a stable accumulation phase following a recent pullback from its previous highs. Bitcoin is trading within the $84,000 – $85,500 range, reflecting a tug-of-war between institutional buying through ETFs and profit-taking from retail investors. Upcoming inflation data and global monetary policy shifts are causing investors to remain cautious as they await clearer signals for the next trend.

On-chain data shows over 70% of BTC supply remains in profit, signaling the bull cycle is intact. ETFs continue to stabilize prices and reduce volatility. However, risks from quantum computing and geopolitical tensions remain. Overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with traders waiting for a clear breakout before committing to new positions.

BTC/USD

Prediction: Accumulation – Potential Upside

Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, trading within a narrow range around $84,000 – $85,500. Despite a short-term dip below $85,000, the medium-term bullish structure remains intact thanks to strong support zones around $83,200 and $80,000. The main obstacle for a new uptrend is the resistance from the 200 EMA and the $85,500 – $85,800 zone.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary and Macro Policy:

Global markets remain affected by uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies. However, Bitcoin's price has remained relatively stable, reflecting the market's growing maturity.

Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock's, are acting as "institutional whales", reducing volatility by absorbing large amounts of BTC from retail investors. This creates price stability and reinforces long-term confidence.

On-chain Data & Market Structure:

The "Supply in Profit" metric remains above 70%, a positive signal and a threshold that historically marks bull cycle territory. A rise back to the 80% level would confirm a strong bullish trend.

Long-term risks from quantum computing remain. However, events like the “Q-Day Prize” bring attention to potential future threats to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security, slightly affecting market sentiment.

Market Sentiment & ETFs:

Institutional inflows via ETFs have helped stabilize Bitcoin’s price amid ongoing supply chain and political crises. Still, the market’s reliance on large institutions increases vulnerability if these “whales” decide to exit.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

• $84,750 – $85,150: Short-term resistance based on Fibonacci and descending trendline.
• $85,500 – $85,800: Strong resistance and recent local high. A breakout opens the path toward $86,400 – $88,000.

Key Support Levels

• $83,200: Immediate support; price has rebounded multiple times here.
• $82,200 – $81,500: Medium-term support; a breakdown may trigger a sharper decline.
• $80,000: Strong psychological and technical support, aligning with accumulation and H4 demand zone.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: ~51.5 → Market is neutral, with no overbought/oversold signal.

EMA 34 – 89 – 200: Price is hovering around the 200 EMA (~$84,039). A clear breakout above it would confirm continued uptrend. EMA 89 and 34 serve as short-term support below.

Price Action:

• Price is consolidating near the confluence of multiple EMAs and support/resistance zones, indicating weak momentum and market hesitation.
• If price breaks above $85,500 with strong volume, it could trigger a rally toward $86,400 or higher
• Conversely, a breakdown below $83,200 may lead to a retest of the $80,000 zone.
• Short-Term Strategy: Trade within the $83,200 – $85,500 range, favoring long positions near support and taking profit at resistance.
• Medium-Term Strategy: If price breaks above $85,800, consider trend-following long positions targeting $88,000+.

Closely monitor interest rate data, ETF flows, and the Supply in Profit indicator to adjust strategies accordingly.

USOIL (WTI Crude Oil)

Prediction: Mild Recovery – Accumulation Phase

WTI crude oil is undergoing a short-term recovery after a sharp drop from the recent highs around $72. The current price near $62.8 indicates a return of buying interest as it approaches the key support zone at $60. While the main trend remains bearish, signs of bottom accumulation and emerging supply-demand dynamics are supporting a technical rebound. Investors should closely watch resistance zones to assess the potential for a trend reversal.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Supply/Demand Factors

The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, including some Chinese refineries, raising concerns over a tighter supply.

OPEC+ announced it has received new production cut commitments from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other members to compensate for prior overproduction.

However, OPEC, IEA, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan have all downgraded their oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 due to escalating global trade tensions.

Macroeconomic Policies

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of inflation risks from tariffs and a slowing U.S. economy.

The Fed remains in a data-dependent stance regarding interest rate changes, putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, which in turn eases pricing pressure on oil.

The 10-year Treasury yield declined after Powell’s comments, reflecting market concern over slowing growth.

Geopolitical & Market Sentiment Factors

Fears of a U.S.–China trade war persist, weighing on global market sentiment.

However, China’s willingness to resume trade talks has raised hopes for a better demand outlook.

Investor sentiment has slightly improved as gold hits historic highs – indicating a shift toward safe havens, which may have a positive spillover effect on oil due to balanced risk appetite.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

• $62.73: Nearest resistance; a breakout could lead to a test of the EMA 89 ($63.39) and EMA 200 ($65.80).
• $65.35 – $67.25: Strong resistance zone, previously a bearish order block (OB); recovery may stall here without strong buying volume.

Key Support Levels

• $60.00 – $61.00: Strong support zone (former supply zone turned support + bullish OB); price has bounced from this area multiple times.
• $55.24: Recent low; a break below this could resume the downtrend with significant pressure.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently at 57.20 – not overbought, showing upward momentum and potential recovery if resistance is broken.

EMA 34, 89, 200: Price is trading below EMA 89 and 200 → medium-term trend remains bearish. A short-term recovery could extend if price surpasses EMA 89.

Volume: Trading volume is gradually increasing within the $60–$62 accumulation range, indicating active buying interest.

Price Action:

• Price has rebounded from the $60 support and is currently testing $62.73.
• A breakout above $62.73 with strong volume could target $65.35 or higher.
• If rejected, investors should watch for a pullback to $61 for potential new entry points.

Oil is recovering due to tighter supply (Iran + OPEC+) and a weakening USD amid growth risks from trade tensions. However, the major hurdle lies at the EMA 89–200 range. Sustained volume is needed to confirm a more durable uptrend.

 

AUD/USD

 

Prediction:Short-Term Uptrend – Technical Correction

 

AUD/USD remains in a short-term uptrend, forming higher lows on the H4 chart. However, the pair has recently pulled back after testing strong resistance at the 0.6390–0.6409 area, which overlaps with a supply zone and previous bearish order blocks. The upward momentum has paused as the Aussie faces dual pressure from weak domestic jobs data and a recovering U.S. dollar.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Australian Monetary Policy & Employment Data

March unemployment held steady at a low 4.1%, but only 32,200 new jobs were added — below expectations.

This supports the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in May, or even 50bps if the global economic outlook worsens.

Markets are now heavily pricing in monetary easing, weighing on the AUD in the medium term.

Impact of the USD & the Fed

Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed is not in a rush to cut rates and warned that tariff policies could complicate the Fed’s dual mandate.

The U.S. dollar has rebounded from recent lows due to profit-taking after weeks of losses, limiting AUD/USD’s upside momentum.

Market Sentiment & Geopolitics

Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the Easter holiday, with reduced liquidity.

Uncertainty from U.S.–China trade policy continues to drive risk-off behavior, with investors favoring safe-haven assets like the USD and CHF.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

• 0.63879 – 0.63912: Major resistance – Supply Zone. This zone includes multiple bearish OBs and may trigger selling pressure.
• A clear breakout above this zone could open the path toward 0.645xx – 0.6500.

Key Support Level

• 0.62955: Nearest support.
• 0.62500: Strong dynamic support, aligning with the 200 EMA.
• 0.61741 and 0.61108: Deeper support levels in case of stronger correction.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently around 61.6, just exiting the overbought zone. A slight bearish divergence suggests the potential for a short-term pullback before resuming the uptrend.

EMA: Price remains above all EMAs, confirming the uptrend. EMA 34 and 89 are sloping upward strongly, supporting short-term bullish momentum.

Price Action:

• Price is testing the supply zone at 0.6390–0.6409. Failure to break this zone may lead to a pullback toward 0.629–0.625.
• Holding above the 200 EMA after a pullback could present a trend-continuation buying opportunity.

Short-Term Trade Setup: Watch price behavior at the 0.6390–0.6409 zone:

• If broken and price holds above: Consider long positions targeting 0.645–0.6500. ● If rejected: Consider short setups targeting the 0.629–0.625 support zone.

Traders should stay cautious ahead of key upcoming releases such as U.S. CPI, China’s GDP, and further speeches from Fed officials.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer

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