Market Analysis
Market Overview
United States
The U.S. financial market continues to experience volatility as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovers around 103.5, near its lowest point in five months. The euro has strengthened on expectations of a ceasefire in Ukraine, putting pressure on the greenback. President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff policies have heightened concerns about inflation and economic recession, limiting the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to cut interest rates. Investors are awaiting U.S. inflation data for further clues on monetary policy.
While the dollar has weakened against the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen, it remains stable against the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Gold hold steady at $2,916 amid trade tensions and rising inflation. Investors are closely watching the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to assess the Fed's interest rate outlook.
Europe
The European market saw the euro reach a five-month high on hopes of a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia. European stock markets posted a slight recovery after Ukraine accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposal mediated by the United States. However, Russia has yet to provide an official response, keeping market sentiment cautious.
European stocks remain under pressure from concerns over President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff policies. Meanwhile, oil prices have risen slightly to nearly $70 per barrel, and gold remains steady at around $2,916 per ounce as investors closely monitor the upcoming U.S. inflation data.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Downtrend, with signs of short-term recovery
Bitcoin's price is currently in a downtrend but has shown slight recovery after hitting strong support around $76,500. At present, the price is trading at $82,598, up 4.3% over the past 24 hours. However, this recovery is not yet strong enough to reverse the medium-term downtrend.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Macroeconomic and Financial Market Factors
Bitcoin has rebounded above $82,000, gaining around 4.3% in the past 24 hours, partially recovering from the recent sell-off. However, this appears to be a technical rebound amid ongoing concerns in the financial markets.
The recent Bitcoin sell-off coincided with a sharp decline in U.S. stocks after President Donald Trump announced aggressive tax plans, raising fears of an economic recession.
Bitcoin's recovery was partly supported by news that Trump had withdrawn his proposed 50% tariff on steel and aluminum from Canada — a move that eased investor concerns.
The market is now awaiting the U.S. CPI data on Wednesday — a key factor for assessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.
Crypto Industry Factors
Starknet announced plans to integrate with both Bitcoin and Ethereum, potentially improving Bitcoin's scalability and lowering transaction fees, boosting market confidence.
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has reintroduced the BITCOIN Act, which would allow the U.S. to expand its Bitcoin reserves to over 1 million BTC. This highlights strong confidence in Bitcoin as a strategic long-term asset.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $83,354: Immediate resistance where the price is currently reacting.
● $86,200: Strong resistance, aligning with the 89 EMA level.
● $88,756: Strong resistance at a prior weekly support zone.
● $92,095: Critical resistance — breaking this level would confirm a bullish trend reversal.
Key Support Levels
● $81,200: Immediate support.
● $80,000: Strong support zone; the price has previously rebounded from this area.
● $76,500: Solid support, previously marking the bottom during the recent sell-off. Breaking below this level could threaten Bitcoin's long-term trend.
● $73,864: The final support level before a deeper decline.
Technical Indicators:
Trading volume remains at an average level. The lack of a volume surge during this rebound suggests it may only be a technical recovery.
The RSI is currently at 46.61, below the 50 mark, indicating that the recovery momentum remains weak, and the downtrend is still dominant. The RSI previously touched the oversold zone (<30) before bouncing back, suggesting buying interest is emerging but not yet strong enough to establish a sustainable uptrend.
Although Bitcoin shows signs of a short-term recovery, the prevailing trend remains bearish. Investors should closely monitor the price reaction around the $84,000 mark and the upcoming CPI data to assess the next trend direction. Employing a flexible trading strategy and closely watching support and resistance zones will help optimize investment opportunities in this volatile market.
XAUUSD
Prediction: Sideways with a bullish bias
Gold prices are currently stable above $2,910/oz, holding on to a 1% gain from the previous session, driven by safe-haven demand and a weaker USD. While the overall trend remains bullish, the price is consolidating within a range, requiring confirmation at key levels to determine its next move.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:
Investors are awaiting the upcoming U.S. CPI data release. If inflation comes in higher than expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may maintain a hawkish monetary stance, putting downward pressure on gold. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could push the Fed toward a more dovish stance, boosting gold prices.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has rebounded from recent lows, currently at 4.291%, which may limit gold's short-term appeal.
Geopolitical and Market Sentiment:
Market sentiment is mixed:
● News of a 30-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia has eased geopolitical tensions, capping gold’s gains.
● However, Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff policies — particularly his initial threat (and subsequent withdrawal) of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum from Canada — have fueled concerns about a potential U.S. recession, increasing safe-haven demand for gold.
● The People's Bank of China (PBoC) continues to increase its gold reserves, reinforcing long-term demand for the precious metal.
Financial Market Conditions:
The S&P 500 remains volatile, reflecting investor uncertainty amid ongoing political and economic risks.
The euro has reached a 5-month high following the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, pressuring the USD and indirectly supporting gold prices.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $2,929.035: Immediate resistance. The price is hovering near this level and requires a clear breakout to confirm stronger bullish momentum.
● $2,956.505: All-time high. A breakout above this level could open the door for extended gains.
Key Support Levels
● $2,906.715: Nearest support, aligning with the EMA 34 & EMA 89, playing a critical role in maintaining the bullish structure.
● $2,883.246: Strong support zone where the price previously bounced during the recent pullback.
● $2,858.874: Major support aligning with the EMA 200, acting as a solid defense if the price faces deeper corrections.
Technical Indicators:
The RSI is currently at 56.43, rebounding from the oversold zone, indicating growing buying pressure. However, it remains below overbought levels, suggesting the bullish momentum still needs stronger confirmation.
Gold is trading above both the EMA 34 and EMA 89, confirming that the bullish trend remains dominant. The widening gap between the moving averages (EMA 34 > EMA 89 > EMA 200) indicates that the medium- to long-term uptrend is intact.
Trading volume remains at an average level, signaling cautious investor behavior ahead of the U.S. CPI release.
Gold is currently consolidating with a bullish bias. Upcoming U.S. CPI data will be crucial in determining the next directional move. Investors should closely watch key support and resistance levels and adopt flexible trading strategies to navigate potential volatility.
USOIL (WTI crude oil)
Prediction: Downtrend (Signs of Short-Term Recovery)
WTI crude oil prices are in a clear downtrend but have shown slight recovery signs from the key support zone around $65.35 - $65.25. The short-term upward momentum is supported by a weaker USD and forecasts of reduced global supply in Q2 2025.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Supply-Demand Outlook and Oil Inventories
Oil prices have risen slightly to around $67/barrel, driven by a weaker USD and projections of tighter global supply in Q2 2025.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its 2025 surplus forecast downward, reducing the projected supply surplus for 2026 by half due to potential production declines from Iran and Venezuela.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a decrease in global oil inventories in Q2 2025, providing positive sentiment for oil prices.
Economic and Geopolitical Pressure
Despite recovery signs, oil prices remain under pressure from:
● U.S. trade uncertainties: Unpredictable tariff policies from the U.S. administration have created headwinds for risk assets like crude oil.
● OPEC+ production increase: Plans to boost output in April may raise supply levels, potentially limiting price gains.
● Russian oil export expectations: Russia may increase exports following a 30-day ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, further weighing on prices.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Data
U.S. crude inventories rose by 4.2 million barrels, exceeding the expected 2.1 million barrels increase, heightening short-term oversupply concerns.
Economic Growth and Energy Demand Outlook
The global economy faces risks of slower growth due to escalating trade tensions, particularly from U.S. tariff policies. If the U.S. economy experiences a slowdown or recession, energy demand may weaken, putting additional pressure on oil prices.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $67.25: Immediate resistance. A breakout above this level could extend the recovery toward higher zones.
● $68.65: Strong resistance aligning with the EMA 89.
● $70.45: A significant resistance zone near the EMA 200.
● $72.55: Critical resistance and a key level for confirming a medium-term trend reversal. Key Support Levels
● $65.35: Crucial support where the price is currently fluctuating.
● $62.73: Strong psychological support zone with the potential to hold firm against further declines.
Technical Indicators:
The RSI is at 37.45, indicating the market remains near oversold conditions. While slight recovery signs are emerging, the RSI must break above the 40 - 50 range to confirm a more sustainable bullish move.
Trading volume remains stable, reflecting moderate investor interest. A surge in volume in the upcoming sessions could reinforce the recovery trend.
WTI crude oil is showing short-term recovery signs, supported by a weaker USD and projected inventory reductions in Q2 2025. However, market sentiment remains cautious amid U.S. trade tensions, economic slowdown risks, and OPEC+’s upcoming production plans.
Investors should closely watch key economic data releases, particularly the U.S. CPI report, along with updates on OPEC+ output policies to assess the next price direction. Monitoring price action near the $67.25 resistance and $65.35 support will be crucial for identifying potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.
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