Market Analysis

United States

U.S. stocks declined for the third  consecutive session, pressured by the  tech sector, particularly Nvidia (-3.1%) and Palantir (-10.5%). The S&P 500 fell  0.5% to 5,983.3 points, while the  Nasdaq dropped 1.2%, and the Dow  Jones edged up 0.08%. Market  sentiment was weighed down by  concerns over U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico, leading to a drop in Treasury yields.

Berkshire Hathaway hit a record high  after posting its highest-ever quarterly  profit, pushing its stock up 4%.  Investors are now awaiting the PCE inflation report and earnings results  from Nvidia and Salesforce this week to assess market outlook.

Australia

The AUD weakened due to concerns  over U.S. tariffs after President Trump  reaffirmed that the planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico would proceed as scheduled. This put pressure on trade-sensitive currencies, with the AUD dropping to $0.6339 after failing to 
break the $0.6392 resistance level. The market was also affected by a decline in U.S. stocks, causing AUD/USD to hover around the $0.6346 support level.

Investors are closely watching Australia’s January inflation data, which is expected to rise to 2.6% and could influence the RBA’s interest rate decisions. If inflation continues to ease, the central bank may delay rate cuts until May. Meanwhile, the NZD also  weakened as the RBNZ is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in April and  May before pausing policy adjustments.

XAU/USD

Prediction: Increase

Gold prices continue their strong upward momentum, currently hovering near the all-time high of $2,956.15, set in the previous session. However, profit-taking pressure may lead to short-term corrections before the uptrend resumes. Investors should closely watch price reactions at key support levels to assess the likelihood of continued growth.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

1. Monetary Policy & Fed Impact

The Fed maintains a cautious stance, closely monitoring inflation and the labor market. Investors expect the Fed to respond "strongly and systematically" to inflation developments, according to a report from the San Francisco Fed.

U.S. Treasury yields have declined, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.4016%, reducing the appeal of the USD and supporting gold prices. The PCE data on Friday – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – will be a key factor influencing monetary policy outlook and gold prices.

2. Inflation & Market Drivers

Former President Trump reaffirmed that tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect as planned on March 4, raising concerns about inflation.

The gold rally is primarily driven by safe-haven demand, as markets fear a potential global trade war due to U.S. tariff policies.

The USD Index has edged down slightly to 106.49, providing additional support for gold prices.

3. Geopolitics & Market Sentiment

U.S.-EU tensions are rising as Trump and Macron hold opposing views on the Ukraine war, potentially increasing economic uncertainty.

India’s gold imports plunged 85% in February, the lowest in 20 years, as record-high gold prices dampened demand.

Gold remains on an uptrend in 2025, up 13% YTD and 5.39% in February.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

● $2,956.505: Recent all-time high; a breakout could push prices toward the $2,970 - $2,980 range.

● $2,950: Critical resistance zone; failure to break above this level may trigger a short-term correction.

Key Support Levels

● $2,930.121: Closest support level, aligning with the 34-EMA; staying above this level will reinforce the uptrend.

● $2,906.715: Next support level; losing this level may lead to a pullback toward $2,884.912.

● $2,850.545: Strong support zone, crucial for monitoring buying interest.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: 56.96 – Still in the bullish zone, but not yet in the overbought territory (70), indicating strong momentum with the possibility of a short-term pullback.

Trading volume remains high, signaling strong investor interest in gold.

Gold is trading near its all-time high with a strong uptrend, though short-term profit-taking could cause temporary pullbacks. Investors should monitor key support levels and the PCE data on Friday to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

S&P 500 (SPX)

Prediction: Short-term correction

The S&P 500 remains in a long-term uptrend but is currently undergoing a short-term correction. The index declined 0.5% to 5,983.25 in the latest session, marking its third consecutive losing day, with a total drop of 2.62% from the all-time high of 6,144.15 (Feb 19, 2025). However, it is still 20.45% above its 52-week low and holding key support levels, suggesting that the current selling pressure is likely a technical pullback rather than a trend reversal.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Tech Sector Weakness:

U.S. stocks fell due to heavy selling in tech and AI-related stocks.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.2%, led by declines in:

● Nvidia (-3.1%)

● Microsoft (-1%)

● Palantir (PLTR) (-10.5%), now down nearly 30% from its peak.

Monetary Policy & Inflation Data:

Investors are awaiting the PCE report – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. If inflation remains elevated, the Fed may keep interest rates higher for longer, adding pressure on the stock market.

Trade Policy Uncertainty:

Donald Trump confirmed that the U.S. will impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, fueling concerns over potential supply chain disruptions.

The Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell sharply, reflecting weakness in the manufacturing sector due to trade policy uncertainties.

Key Events This Week:

Nvidia (NVDA) earnings (Wednesday): Nvidia is one of the most influential stocks in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. If results miss expectations, especially in AI chip sales, it could trigger a broader tech sell-off.

PCE report (Friday): A higher-than-expected PCE reading would increase the odds of the Fed keeping rates high, putting pressure on stocks. A lower-than-expected PCE reading could provide a boost to the market.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

● 6,127.40: Closest resistance. A strong rebound above this level could lead to a retest of the 6,144.15 all-time high.

● 6,147.43: The historical peak; a key level if the uptrend resumes.

Key Support Levels

● 5,943.26: Nearest support, aligned with the 89-EMA.

● 5,875.06: A stronger support level; breaking below could trigger further selling pressure.

● 5,666.61: A major support zone, aligned with the 200-EMA. If the index drops here, strong buying interest may emerge.

Technical Indicators:

EMA: The index remains above the 200-EMA, indicating a long-term uptrend is intact. However, prices are approaching the 89-EMA & 34-EMA, suggesting that if these levels fail, a deeper correction could follow.

RSI: 43.42, down from 60, signaling increasing selling pressure. If RSI falls below 40, it could confirm a stronger downtrend.

The S&P 500 is in a short-term correction but still holds above key support levels. Investors should closely watch tech earnings (NVDA) and PCE inflation data to gauge the next major move. A weak PCE report or strong Nvidia earnings could fuel a rebound, while higher inflation or disappointing results may lead to further downside.

BTCUSD

Prediction: Decrease

Bitcoin continues its strong downtrend after losing the key $95,000 support level. The price has now dropped to $90,888, consolidating in the $91,500 - $92,200 range. Although there are signs of a slight rebound, selling pressure remains dominant, and BTC risks further decline if it loses the $90,000 psychological level.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Market Sentiment & Macro Factors:

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped sharply to 25 (Extreme Fear), signaling panic selling among investors.

The crypto market capitalization has fallen over 8% in the last 24 hours, from $3.31 trillion to $3.09 trillion, reflecting loss of investor confidence.

Risk assets like the Nasdaq (-4%) and S&P 500 (-2.3%) have also declined, adding further downward pressure on Bitcoin.

Trump’s administration reaffirmed a 25% tariff on Canada, Mexico, and China, fueling inflation concerns and increasing uncertainty in financial markets, including crypto.

Institutional Flows:

BlackRock increased its stake to 5% in Strategy, showing continued institutional interest in Bitcoin. Strategy acquired 20,365 BTC (~$2 billion), raising its total Bitcoin holdings to 499,096 BTC (2.38% of total BTC supply).

However, Bitcoin ETF flows have weakened, with a total outflow of $552.5 million over the past week, indicating institutional hesitation.

Selling Pressure & Liquidations:

Over the past 24 hours, $961 million in positions have been liquidated, with $891 million in long positions, showing that buyers are losing control.

Upcoming BTC options expirations could add further downward pressure on price.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

● $92,200: Nearest resistance, aligning with the short-term downtrend line.

● $93,200 - $93,650: Confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement and technical resistance.

A breakout above this zone could push BTC toward $94,500 - $95,500.

Key Support Levels

● $92,095: A previous low tested multiple times since November 2024.

● $90,000: Major psychological support level.

● $88,756: Strong support zone; losing this level could lead to a sharp drop to $85,000.

Technical Indicators:

RSI (30.33): Oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term rebound, but no clear reversal signal yet.

MACD: Deep in bearish territory, with no bullish divergence yet.

Trading Volume: Increasing on red days, indicating strong selling pressure.

The overall trend remains bearish, with potential short-term bounces due to oversold conditions. However, until BTC reclaims $93,650, the risk of further downside remains high. Traders should exercise caution with long positions and focus on defensive strategies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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