Market Analysis

JPMorgan: Trump's Social Media Mentions of Stock Market Have 'Disappeared

Amos Simanungkalit · 20 Feb27.8K Views

Image Credit: Yahoo!Finance

President Donald Trump, who has long promoted the stock market as a key indicator of a strong U.S. economy, has recently posted less about stocks during his second term in office.

A study by JPMorgan strategist Antonin Delair analyzed 126 social media posts from Trump since his re-election, primarily from Truth Social. It found that references to the stock market have largely disappeared, in contrast to his first term, when Trump frequently highlighted economic successes like lower unemployment and rising stock prices. This time around, his posts focus more on issues like the debt ceiling, government spending, and tariffs.

In his first term, Trump mentioned the stock market in 57% of his 23,073 tweets. However, since his re-election, he has only mentioned it once. Delair’s research also looked at the impact of Trump's posts on the foreign exchange market, noting that only about 10% of his recent posts have influenced FX markets. While posts about tariffs could lead to a broad rally in the U.S. dollar, posts about tariff delays tend to affect specific currencies.

Despite the stock market nearing record highs, other pressing issues seem to dominate Trump's social media focus, including the U.S. budget deficit, which ballooned to $1.83 trillion in fiscal year 2024—its highest level outside the COVID-19 period. Interest on federal debt surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, and the deficit grew by 8%, marking the third-largest federal deficit in U.S. history.

In the background, Elon Musk’s leadership of DOGE has been targeting government inefficiencies and proposing cuts to wasteful programs. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff also emphasized the importance of reaching a balanced budget, viewing it as a bipartisan issue that transcends party lines.

Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff policies, particularly on steel and Chinese imports, have become a defining feature of his administration. A 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods remain in place, and while Trump recently paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico, he has also proposed a 25% tariff on automotive imports, which could severely impact U.S. automakers like General Motors and Ford. Ford CEO Jim Farley warned that such tariffs would wipe out industry profits, lead to job losses, and raise prices for consumers.