Market Analysis
XAU/USD
Prediction: Increase
Gold prices have reached a record high and continue to maintain an upward trend amidst concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions and rising geopolitical instability. Although the RSI indicator is in the overbought zone on the 4-hour timeframe, gold is still seen as a safe haven asset during global market volatility.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies
Trump’s tariff policy: The U.S. administration has imposed a 10% tariff on all imports from China, while temporarily suspending tariffs on Mexico and Canada. This raises concerns about the negative impact on global economic growth. China’s response: Beijing quickly retaliated with tariffs on U.S. energy imports, escalating trade risks and driving capital towards safe haven assets like gold.
Inflation Factors and Safe Assets
Inflation concerns: Tariff measures could increase the cost of goods, leading to higher inflation and supporting demand for gold—a traditional inflation hedge.
Gold as a safe asset: Besides trade tensions, instability from U.S. foreign policy, including President Trump’s proposal to control Gaza, is increasing the demand for gold as a safe haven.
Gold Flows and Activity of Global Gold Banks
Gold inflows into the U.S.: Domestic gold prices in the U.S. have been higher than international prices, prompting gold banks in Dubai and Hong Kong to ship large amounts of gold to the U.S. market to capitalize on the price difference. This further puts upward pressure on international gold prices.
Upcoming Economic Data
The JOLTS report showed job openings falling to 7.6 million, below the forecast of 8 million, signaling a weakening U.S. labor market. Investors are watching the ADP employment report and NFP report later this week to assess the impact of monetary policy.
The market expects the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates twice this year, which could weaken the USD and support gold's upward momentum.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $2,854/oz: This is the newly established peak; if broken, gold prices could continue towards $2,870 – $2,900/oz.
● $2,827/oz: The nearest resistance zone; if the price pulls back but holds above this level, the upward trend remains intact.
Key Support Levels
● $2,793/oz: The first major support area, which could act as a bounce point if prices correct.
● $2,757 – $2,738/oz: Next support levels; if prices drop further, this could be a potential buying zone.
RSI: On the 4H chart, RSI at 74.07 indicates gold is in the overbought territory, suggesting a short-term pullback may occur. On the D1 chart, the RSI remains above the neutral level, supporting the long-term upward trend.
EMA Trends: EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 continue to slope upwards, indicating the bullish trend is still in place. Prices are moving above the EMA 34, confirming strong upward momentum.
Price Action: Spot prices are currently hovering around $2,849/oz, near the record high. If it breaks $2,854, the upward trend could continue with targets between $2,870 – $2,900/oz. If there’s a pullback, the $2,793 – $2,757 zone will be crucial support for potential buying opportunities.
Trading Volume: Market data shows a strong increase in physical gold demand, especially in the U.S., due to the higher price differential compared to the international market. This continues to support the upward trend in gold prices.
EUR/USD
Prediction: Increase
The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as the USD maintains its strength due to positive U.S. economic data. Meanwhile, the Eurozone continues to face challenges related to economic growth and monetary policy from the ECB.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
USD Strength and the Impact of Fed Policy The DXY index remains above the 107 level, reflecting the resilience of the USD as U.S. economic data, such as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the Manufacturing PMI, have exceeded expectations.
Fed Policy: While the Federal Reserve has left the door open for interest rate cuts this year, officials emphasize that any move will depend on economic data. This keeps the USD strong against the EUR.
Slowing Growth in the Eurozone
The Eurozone GDP in the latest quarter grew by only 0.1%, below forecasts, raising concerns about a mild recession in Europe. ECB Monetary
Policy: The European Central Bank (ECB) may cut interest rates sooner than the Fed due to pressure from weak economic performance, adding further downside risk to the EUR.
Bond Yield Spread
U.S. government bond yields remain significantly higher than European bonds, reducing the attractiveness of the EUR compared to the USD.
The monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB continues to be a key factor influencing the EUR/USD trend.
Upcoming Key Economic Data
The U.S. CPI report and FOMC meeting minutes will be crucial events that could heavily impact the volatility of this currency pair this week.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● 1.04326 – A strong resistance level where the price previously experienced a sharp drop.
● 1.05001 – A psychological resistance zone.
Key Support Levels
● 1.03398 – The nearest support; if broken, the price could move lower.
● 1.02221 – A strong support zone where the price recently rebounded from its lows.
RSI: Currently around 54.19, above the 50 level, indicating slight bullish momentum, but no clear strong trend yet.
EMA Trends: The price is hovering near the EMA 34 and EMA 89, suggesting the market is at a decision point regarding trend direction. The EMA 200 remains a crucial resistance level.
BTC/USD
Prediction: Decrease
Bitcoin continues to face downward pressure as the price fails to hold above $100,000. Currently, BTC is hovering around the key support level of $97,665—if this level is broken, the price could decline further toward $90,437. Technical indicators still favor a bearish trend, though a short-term rebound may occur.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Increased Selling Pressure After a Sharp Decline Bitcoin failed to hold above $102,500 and was quickly pushed below $100,000. This suggests that selling pressure remains dominant, especially as the market lacks strong bullish catalysts to support a recovery.
Market Data and Investor Activity
Smart DCA Accumulation Signal: Some analysts believe the current price zone could be a good opportunity to accumulate BTC using a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy. However, this signal needs further confirmation from other factors.
Institutional Buying: Despite Bitcoin's decline, on-chain data shows that large investors continue accumulating, particularly when BTC reaches key support levels.
USDT Dominance: The USDT dominance index remains below 4.65%, indicating that market sentiment is not overly bearish, but selling pressure is still present.
Market Sentiment and Short-Term Outlook If Bitcoin fails to hold the $97,665 level, the price may decline further toward $90,437. Conversely, if BTC recovers and breaks above the $99,198 - $102,216 range, a bullish trend could resume.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $99,198 – $102,216: The nearest resistance zone—if broken, BTC could recover toward $106,807.
● $108,364: A higher resistance level that needs to be cleared to confirm a bullish reversal.
● $97,665: A critical support level—if breached, BTC may drop significantly.
● $90,437: The strongest current support, acting as a potential rebound zone if the price declines further.
EMA: BTC is trading below all three EMAs, indicating that the bearish trend remains dominant. The price may face strong resistance if it moves into the $99,198 - $102,216 range.
RSI: Currently at 42.94, RSI remains below 50, suggesting that selling pressure is still in control. However, the indicator has slightly recovered from oversold territory (<30), which could signal a potential short-term bounce.
Disclaimer
Derivative investments involve significant risks and may result in the loss of the capital you invest. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.
RISK WARNING IN TRADING
Transactions via margin involve products that use leverage mechanisms, carry high risks, and are certainly not suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be wary of those who guarantee profits in trading. You are advised not to use funds if you are not prepared to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, ensure that you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.