Market Analysis

XAU/USD

Prediction: Increase

Gold prices continue to hover near record highs, supported by USD weakness and steady  demand prospects. However, key resistance zones may prompt short-term corrective pressures. 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

Spot gold is currently trading around $2,755.68/ounce, remaining near the all-time high of  $2,790.15 recorded at the end of 2024. 

Market sentiment is bolstered by the following factors: 

● U.S. Trade Policy Risks: President Trump is considering a 10% tariff on imports from  China and Europe, fueling risk-aversion sentiment and boosting gold demand. 

● Declining Bond Yields: Lower U.S. bond yields enhance gold’s appeal as a non-yielding  asset. 

● Policy Adjustments by the Fed and ECB: The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged  in next week’s meeting, while the ECB is preparing for further rate cuts. 

Risk Factors 

● Fed's Potential Hawkish Stance: If the Fed adopts a hawkish tone to tackle inflation, it  could pressure gold prices downward. 

● ETF Outflows: SPDR Gold Trust’s holdings decreased to 869.36 tons, signaling potential  weakening demand.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Key Resistance Level: 

● $2,759: Fibonacci resistance level and a short-term peak that gold must clear to maintain  its uptrend. 

● $2,763.43 and $2,790.15: Historical highs serving as strong resistance. 

Key Support Level: 

● $2,738.57: Aligns with the EMA 34 dynamic support (H4 chart). 

● $2,726.32: A stronger support level. 

RSI: Currently at 70.33, indicating overbought conditions and potential short-term corrections. 

Trading Volume: Slightly increased in recent sessions; however, selling pressure from ETFs  may trigger corrections.  XAU/USD remains supported by positive fundamentals and stable technical trends.  Nonetheless, strong resistance zones could exert short-term corrective pressure. Investors  should closely monitor Fed policy developments and macroeconomic factors to make informed  decisions. 

EUR/USD 

Prediction: Decrease 

EUR/USD is currently trading around $1.0411, with bearish momentum after testing the strong  resistance zone at $1.0460. The primary trend may continue downward, but it depends on key  fundamentals in the upcoming week, including interest rate decisions from the ECB and the  Fed.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

U.S. Tariff Policy: President Trump's proposed tariffs of 10-25% are expected to create market  volatility. While the current proposal is seen as "moderate," a more assertive stance could cause  significant USD fluctuations.  ECB Policy

Outlook: The ECB is anticipated to cut rates by 0.25% next week, signaling  monetary easing that could weaken the Euro. If post-meeting statements emphasize further  easing, this may amplify the Euro's weakness.  Fed's Rate

Decision: The Fed is also set to announce its rate decision next week. While no  major changes are expected, a hawkish tone could strengthen the USD further, pressuring 

EUR/USD.  USD Stability: The USD Index (DXY) remains stable around 108.25. Since the Euro accounts  for 57.6% of the DXY weight, any EUR/USD weakness could further bolster the index. 

Market Sentiment: Investors are cautious ahead of critical decisions by both the ECB and theMFed. Any unexpected news could shift market direction abruptly. 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Key Resistance: 

$1.0460: Recent swing high and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from December’s decline. A  breakout above this level could target $1.0500. 

Key Support: 

$1.0403: Fibonacci 50% level and dynamic EMA 200 support on the H4 chart. A break below  this level could push EUR/USD toward stronger supports at $1.0375 and $1.0289. 

RSI: On the H4 chart, RSI is neutral at 55-60, indicating weakening upward momentum. A drop  below 50 would signal a potential reversal. 

Trend and Trading Strategy 

● In the short term, EUR/USD is trading within a downtrend channel, with crucial support at  $1.0403. 

● If this support breaks, the downtrend is likely to continue. However, if the pair holds  above $1.0403, a corrective bounce toward resistance at $1.0460 is possible. 

EUR/USD is poised for further declines if it breaks below $1.0403, but caution is advised due to  upcoming ECB and Fed announcements. Stay vigilant for market-moving news. 

BTC/USD 

Prediction: Decrease 

Bitcoin is undergoing a correction phase after failing to break through the resistance zone at  107,200. The short-term trend indicates dominant selling pressure, though recovery remains  possible if prices hold above the key support at $100,500. 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

Spot Price: Bitcoin's current spot price is $102,500, down 2.5% in the last 24 hours.  Profit-Taking: Following a surge to $107,200, significant profit-taking has triggered a downward  adjustment, reflecting the market's lack of momentum to breach higher resistance levels. 

CME Futures News: CME accidentally revealed plans to launch XRP and SOL futures in  February, potentially diverting capital flows from Bitcoin to promising altcoins like XRP and SOL. 

Trump’s Crypto Policies:

● Positive developments include consideration of a strategic digital asset reserve. 

● However, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon’s assertion that Bitcoin is not a threat to  the USD dampens enthusiasm for Bitcoin's potential as a fiat replacement. 

Regulatory Landscape: The U.S. court's decision to lift sanctions on Tornado Cash signals  support for blockchain innovation but raises concerns about future legal risks if protocols are  misused. 

Market Sentiment: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is neutral at 52, indicating indecision. A  failure to reclaim resistance levels could push sentiment into the "fear" zone. 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
Key Resistance Levels: 

● $103,650: Aligns with the short-term downtrend line on the 1-hour chart. 

● $104,500: Coincides with the 100-hour SMA and serves as a critical barrier for  confirming an uptrend. 

● $107,200: The recent peak and the strongest short-term resistance. 

Key Support Levels: 

● $100,500: The first strong support level. 

● $100,000: A psychological level; a breach could lead to deeper declines. 

● $88,500: A significant support level for extended bearish scenarios. 

RSI: On the 4-hour chart, RSI is at 45, signaling bearish momentum. If RSI dips below 30,  Bitcoin may find a short-term bottom and start recovering.  Bitcoin is in a correction phase and must maintain support at $100,500 to avoid deeper  declines. Investors should closely monitor price movements at $103,650 and $100,500 for  potential reversals or continuation of the bearish trend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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