Market Analysis

XAU/USD

Prediction: Increase

The gold price (XAU/USD) is currently at its highest level in over a month due to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates further this year. Recently, U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) data showed lower-than-expected core inflation, fueling hopes for a potential rate cut by the Fed in the near future.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Spot gold: Currently at $2,695.84/ounce (slightly up). Comex gold futures: Up 1.31% to $2,712.50.

CPI data: Core CPI increased by 3.2%, lower than the forecast of 3.3%, increasing expectations that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates.

Yields and USD: U.S. bond yields have fallen, and the USD weakened after the CPI data release.

Market expectations: Increased likelihood that the Fed will further reduce interest rates this year.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance:

The strong resistance level is $2,721.193. This is the most recent high and could act as a barrier to further upward movement.

If the price breaks this level, we could see a strong upward momentum, with next targets at $2,740 and $2,760.

Key Support:

$2,675 (EMA 34): If this level is breached, gold could drop to $2,658 (EMA 89) or further to $2,650 (EMA 200).

RSI Indicator:

The RSI is currently around 59-60 on the D1 timeframe, showing that the upward momentum still exists but is slowing. If the RSI surpasses 70, the upward momentum could strengthen further Gold may continue to rise in the short term due to expectations of a Fed rate cut and a weaker

USD, but key resistance levels must be monitored. If the price breaks these levels, the bullish trend will gain strength. However, if it fails to break through, a correction towards lower support levels may occur.

EUR/USD

Prediction: decrease

The EUR/USD pair is trading in a mild downtrend after failing to sustain its recent upward movement. The chart shows technical indicators pointing to a correction from a strong resistance zone. The USD weakened slightly after U.S. CPI data showed a mild drop in inflation, giving an opportunity for other currencies, such as JPY, to rise.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

U.S. CPI data: U.S. inflation in December showed a slight decrease, with core inflation rising only 0.2% compared to the 0.3% forecast, creating expectations that the Fed might reduce interest rates in the future, which affects the USD's strength.

Fed rate cut expectations: Growing expectations of a Fed rate cut in 2025 following weaker CPI data. The market is preparing for the Fed’s next moves and President Donald Trump’s policies. Weakened USD: After the U.S. CPI data showed core inflation rising less than expected, market expectations for the Fed’s rate cut adjusted, leading to a weakening of the USD.

Safe-haven demand: While there hasn’t been much market response to geopolitical news, expectations of political actions next week, including tax measures from the Trump administration, are causing investor caution.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance:

● A strong resistance level is at $1.03749, which price failed to break in previous attempts, potentially continuing to block EUR/USD’s recovery.

● If the price fails to break this level, a further downward adjustment could occur, possibly testing lower support levels.

Key Support:

● The nearest support level is $1.02896, followed by $1.02221. If this support is broken, EUR/USD could test a lower level at $1.01766, confirming a longer-term bearish trend.

RSI Indicator: The RSI is around 50, indicating weakening upward momentum and possibly signaling a stronger bearish trend.

EMA: Price is currently trading below the 34 EMA, 89 EMA, and 200 EMA, indicating a continued bearish trend in the short term. The 200 EMA at 1.04198 is acting as a strong resistance. If EUR/USD cannot break this level, it may continue to decline towards lower support levels.

EUR/USD is expected to continue its downward trend due to corrective signals from the strong resistance zone and the weakened USD following lower-than-expected inflation data. If the price cannot break key resistance levels, the pair is likely to fall further toward deeper support levels. Investors need to monitor Fed developments and significant economic information to confirm the longer-term bearish trend.

BTC/USD

Prediction: Bullish

Bitcoin is currently showing a strong recovery after a period of consolidation. The BTC/USD pair has broken through the $97,000 mark and shows signs of continuing the upward trend, thanks to supporting market events, including macroeconomic improvements and expectations of Bitcoin-supportive policies from certain countries and politicians. However, market sentiment remains divided, as some traders remain cautious about the continuation of the upward trend.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Improved market sentiment: Political moves, such as some U.S. states’ Bitcoin reserve plans, are creating expectations for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin market data: Bitcoin recently rebounded strongly from a low of $90,000 to above $97,000, with the next target at $100,000. However, there remains some hesitation about breaking through the next resistance levels.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance:

The nearest resistance levels are $99,926 and $102,216. If the price breaks above $99,926, Bitcoin may retest the $102,216 zone, which is near the previous high.

Forecast: If BTC can break these resistance levels, this will strengthen the bullish trend and may push the price above $105,000 in the short term.

Key Support:

The nearest support levels are $97,665 and $96,000. If BTC drops below these levels, it could return to $94,000 and then $90,437. However, these support levels are still relatively strong and could protect the upward trend.

RSI Indicator: The current RSI is around 60, indicating that upward momentum remains but is not too strong. If RSI surpasses 70, it may signal a stronger upward trend. If RSI starts to fall
below 50, a correction may occur.

Bitcoin is likely to continue rising if it breaks through key resistance levels, with the target moving towards $100,000 or higher. However, investors should remain cautious, as market sentiment remains volatile, and the price may correct to support levels if resistance is not broken.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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