Market Analysis

XAU/USD

Prediction: Bullish

Gold prices are showing signs of a slight recovery in early trading today, supported by uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s economic policies and anticipation of upcoming key economic reports, particularly the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

Fundamental Analysis:

Spot Price: Spot gold is currently at $2,670.16/ounce as of 00:44 GMT, up about 0.3% on the day.

U.S. Gold Futures: Reached $2,688.40/ounce, up 0.4%.

U.S. Employment Data: The recent surge in U.S. employment data has strengthened the USD, exerting pressure on gold. However, uncertainty around Trump’s policies continues to support gold as a safe-haven asset.

Fed Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains a cautious stance on rate cuts this year, despite signs of a slowing U.S. economy.

Technical Analysis:

Key Resistance: The nearest resistance level is $2,678. If breached, prices may test subsequent levels at $2,700 and $2,721.

Key Support: The nearest support is $2,660 (EMA 34). If this level is broken, prices may decline to stronger support levels at $2,640 (EMA 89) and $2,610 (EMA 200).

RSI: The RSI is currently around 59-60, indicating that upward momentum remains but is weakening. If the RSI surpasses 70, bullish momentum could strengthen further.

EMA: The EMA lines (34, 89, 200) are supporting a short-term bullish trend. The crossing of EMAs may signal a potential reversal or continuation of the trend.

Dollar Index (DXY): The recent increase in USD has pressured gold prices, but uncertainties around U.S. policies and economic data may curb the dollar's strength, providing support for gold.

Given the current fundamental and technical factors, gold prices are likely to continue rising if they surpass key resistance levels. 

However, investors should closely monitor upcoming data, particularly inflation figures and Fed policy updates, to determine the next market direction.

EUR/USD

Prediction: Consolidation within a narrow range

The EUR/USD pair is trading around a key support level at 1.0200, after hitting a low of 1.0177—the lowest level since 2022. The U.S. dollar remains strong on expectations of stable Fed interest rates, while weak fundamentals from the Eurozone continue to weigh on the euro.

Fundamental Analysis:

Strengthening USD: The recent U.S. jobs report indicates a resilient labor market, boosting expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates high for an extended period. The 10-year U.S.Treasury yield hit a 14-month high at 4.799%, further supporting the dollar.

Pressure on the Euro: The ECB appears more dovish, considering easing monetary policy amid weakening Eurozone economic conditions. Factors such as the widening Germany-U.S. yield spread and weak economic outlook are pressuring the euro.

U.S. Tariff Concerns: News about potential gradual tariff increases by the Trump administration raises inflation concerns, supporting the USD while adding pressure on the euro.

Technical Analysis:

Key Support:

● 1.0200 (Fib 61.8%): This is a strong support level and a key psychological boundary. A break below this level could lead to a test of 1.0175 (recent low) and further down to 1.0150.

Key Resistance:

● 1.0222: The nearest recent high and the first target for buyers attempting a recovery.
● 1.0270 (EMA 34): If breached, EUR/USD could test higher resistance at 1.0339 (EMA89).

RSI: The RSI is currently around 40, indicating a slightly oversold condition. A recovery in the RSI above 50 could trigger a short-term bullish move.

EMA: Both the EMA 34 and EMA 89 are sloping downward, confirming the current bearish trend. The price remains below both EMAs, indicating continued selling pressure

The main trend for EUR/USD remains bearish due to the strong USD and weak Eurozone fundamentals. However, if the support level at 1.0200 holds, a short-term rebound may occur.

Investors should closely monitor U.S. CPI and PPI data this week for clearer direction on the pair’s long-term trend.

BTC/USD

Prediction: Range-bound movement with potential for short-term recovery

Bitcoin is currently trading around $94,000 after rebounding from a near-term low of $89,000.

Investors are closely monitoring key fundamentals, including upcoming crypto-friendly policies from the new administration and on-chain indicators like the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR).

Fundamental Analysis:

Short-term Holder SOPR (STH SOPR): Currently at 0.99, indicating that short-term investors have started selling at a loss. Historically, an SOPR below 1 often aligns with potential bottoming phases for Bitcoin.

Trump Administration’s Crypto Policy: Positive news regarding Donald Trump’s plans to sign executive orders supporting cryptocurrencies has led to a strong recovery in Bitcoin's price. If measures such as regulatory reform and improved banking access for the crypto industry are implemented, it could provide significant market momentum.

Market Sentiment: Although BTC has dropped nearly 12.34% from its all-time high ($106,734.51), underlying factors remain positive, especially with the continued participation of "whales" and major institutional investors.

Technical Analysis:

Key Support Levels:

● $90,437: Strong support on the 4-hour chart. Holding above this level is critical to avoid further downside.
● $89,000: Recent bottom and a key psychological support level.

Key Resistance Levels:

● $95,000 (EMA 34): Currently acting as the nearest resistance. BTC needs to break this level to gain upward momentum.
● $97,665 (EMA 89): Next resistance level; breaking above it would enable BTC to test $99,198.

RSI: On the 4-hour chart, RSI is around 50, indicating market momentum is recovering. If RSI climbs above 60, it will signal stronger bullish momentum.

EMA: Both EMA 34 and EMA 89 are serving as dynamic resistance levels. BTC needs to break above both to confirm a bullish trend reversal.

Price Pattern: BTC is trading within a long-term descending channel. However, the recent strong rebound from the channel support at $89,000 suggests a potential short-term recovery.

Bitcoin is at a sensitive stage where both technical and fundamental factors are critical. While SOPR indicates short-term investors are selling at a loss—a potential bottoming signal—market direction will largely depend on news, particularly regarding Trump’s pro-crypto policies.

Maintaining support above $90,000 is crucial for a potential recovery toward $97,000-$100,000. Investors should closely watch for any regulatory updates and market sentiment shifts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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