Market Analysis
XAUUSD
Forecast: Upward Trend
Fundamental Analysis:
Spot gold continues to experience a slight bearish tilt, marking its fifth consecutive day of decline, currently hovering near $2,645 per troy ounce after the US market open. Despite this dip, the XAU/USD pair remains distant from signaling a temporary peak, with the record high of $2,685.45 set in September still intact. Although the US Dollar has gained strength due to solid macroeconomic data and reduced expectations of a significant Federal Reserve interest rate cut, gold remains attractive to investors amid multiple challenges. The greenback benefits from the strong US economy, yet gold demand persists as tensions in the Middle East rise. Additionally, while the stock market turned positive at the start of the week, led by losses in the tech sector, gold's safe-haven appeal continues to provide support.
Technical Analysis:
Technically, XAU/USD is in a consolidation phase, trading above all key moving averages on the daily chart. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains a sharp upward trajectory, offering dynamic support around the $2,620 level. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator remains steady above the 100-line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has softened slightly to around 61, though neither indicator suggests a significant downside move. This indicates a period of stability for gold, with no immediate signs of a sharp decline.
EURUSD
Outlook: Bearish
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair continues to trade within familiar ranges on Tuesday, encountering selling pressure below the 1.1000 threshold. Despite positive German data, the Euro remains largely overlooked. Germany's August Industrial Production showed a notable monthly increase of 2.9%, significantly surpassing the expected 0.8% rise. However, on a yearly basis, industrial production still declined by 2.7%, though this is an improvement over the previous -5.3%.
Technical Analysis:
On the technical side, EUR/USD is contending with an ascending trendline that was breached earlier in the week. This trendline now serves as dynamic resistance just above the current price level, with any short-term attempts to break higher quickly met with selling interest. Indicators on the daily chart show a lack of clear direction, consolidating in negative territory with no strong signs of recovery. Meanwhile, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is slightly rising above the price, while the flat 100-day SMA provides support around the 1.0930 level.
NZDUSD
Outlook: Bearish
Fundamental Analysis:
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) indicates that annual consumer price inflation is within its target range of 1 to 3%. To maintain low and stable inflation while minimizing disruptions to output, employment, interest rates, and the exchange rate, the RBNZ has decided to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues its efforts to support the labor market, with Vice Chair Philip Jefferson emphasizing that the recent 50 basis point rate cut in September was aimed at keeping labor conditions robust even as inflation gradually eases, according to Reuters.
Technical Analysis:
The New Zealand Dollar remains under pressure, with the NZD/USD pair extending its downward trend. The pair has fallen below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and is on the verge of breaking below a key ascending trend channel on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently hovering near 41.10, indicates growing bearish momentum. A break below the trend channel’s lower boundary around 0.6135 could open the door for further declines towards the psychological level of 0.6000. Continued weakness could see the pair retest the August 15 low of 0.5974.
ETHUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Ethereum has outperformed Solana in several critical metrics, as highlighted by analysts at Standard Chartered. They predict Ethereum could rise to $7,000 if the Harris administration comes to power and potentially reach $10,000 under Trump. Recently, Ethereum rebounded from the support level around $2,400 and is now targeting the $2,490 resistance. However, the bank has revised its year-end 2025 forecast, lowering the predicted all-time high for Ethereum to $7,000 in the Harris scenario and $10,000 under Trump, which is nearly 50% less than their previous $14,000 forecast.
Technical Analysis:
Ethereum is trading near $2,430 following approximately $18.93 million in liquidations within the derivatives market, including $10.89 million in long positions and $8.04 million in short positions, according to Coinglass. After bouncing from the $2,400 psychological support level, ETH is attempting to break through the rectangle resistance at $2,490. A major obstacle lies at the convergence of the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Should Ethereum successfully surpass the $2,490 resistance, it could advance towards $2,596.
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