

Market Analysis
BTCUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
Over the past six months, the inflow of capital into the Bitcoin network has seen a sharp decline, pushing Bitcoin into a prolonged consolidation phase. This trend has persisted since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, with short-term holders (STH), who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, demonstrating negative market momentum. Despite the real price gradient remaining positive, it is on a downward trajectory, indicating that Bitcoin’s price is declining at a faster rate than the capital exiting the network. While many newer investors are facing losses, their unrealized losses are relatively smaller compared to the sell-offs seen in mid-2021 and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. As the market contracts, the cost basis for newer investors tends to drag down the spot price, reflecting a "net capital outflow from the Bitcoin ecosystem."
Technical Analysis:
The cost basis for investors holding Bitcoin for one week to one month (referred to as the "fast line") has fallen below that of investors holding for one to three months (the "slow line"), signaling a net outflow in the market. This pattern suggests that "a potential market reversal could be gradually building momentum." Bitcoin's recent recovery has kept it above the $63,900 level, which is fostering optimism for further upward movement. If the price holds above the 200-day moving average of $63,900, it could signal a technically important rebound.
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