

Market Analysis
XAUUSD
Prediction: Bullish Momentum Likely
Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices have recently declined from an all-time high of $2,670/ounce, retreating slightly but remaining above $2,650/ounce, largely due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar. Despite this dip, the overall outlook for gold remains positive. Market sentiment is still bullish, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement a significant interest rate cut. Traders are currently pricing in a 60% likelihood of a 50 basis point rate reduction in November. Given that gold offers no yield, lower interest rates tend to increase its appeal as an asset. Additionally, geopolitical developments, including the U.S.'s efforts to broker a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, could influence market volatility. The Biden administration's new diplomatic initiative aims to pause hostilities in Lebanon while resuming negotiations on hostages in Gaza and reaching a broader ceasefire agreement.
Technical Analysis:
On the technical side, gold appears to be overbought on the daily chart, suggesting a possible near-term pullback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling that gold is in overbought territory, indicating a potential dip before resuming its upward trajectory. If gold continues its bullish momentum and breaks above the year-to-date high of $2,670, it may target $2,675 and $2,700 next. Further gains could push the price towards $2,750 and $2,800. However, if the price drops below the $2,650 support level, it could test the high from September 18 at $2,600, with additional support around the September 18 low of $2,546 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,488.
USDJPY
Prediction: Potential for Upside Movement
Fundamental Analysis:
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened slightly against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday as investors weighed the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) upcoming decisions. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated on Tuesday that the central bank has ample time to assess both market and economic conditions before adjusting monetary policy, signaling no urgency to raise interest rates again. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair faced headwinds as the US Dollar struggled following disappointing US consumer confidence data, which heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may adopt a more cautious stance in its next policy decision.
Technical Analysis:
Despite a rally in USD/JPY during the session, the pair remains in a broader downtrend, staying below the 200-day moving average (DMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed into neutral territory, indicating the potential for additional gains in the short term. Should the pair continue to climb, the next key resistance is at $145.00, followed by the 50-DMA at $146.73. A further push higher could target the $147.00 mark. Conversely, if USD/JPY drops below $144.00, it could retreat towards $143.39, with additional support levels at $142.76 and $142.13.
EURUSD
Outlook: Downtrend Expected
Fundamental Analysis:
EUR/USD retraced much of Tuesday’s gains, which had been driven by news of additional stimulus from the People's Bank of China (PBoC). On the US Dollar side, the Dollar Index (DXY) hit 14-month lows near 100.20 before rebounding, as investor sentiment improved, buoyed by rising US bond yields. In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently eased its monetary policy due to growing concerns about inflation and the broader economy. Although the ECB did not explicitly signal a rate cut for October, it acknowledged that inflation within the Eurozone remains elevated.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD is likely to encounter resistance at $1.1214, its 2024 high from September 25, followed by $1.1275, the peak from July 18. Should the pair continue to decline, the next key support level is $1.1001, the low from September 11, bolstered by the 55-day simple moving average (SMA). Additional downside levels include $1.0881 from August 8, with the 200-day SMA positioned at $1.0872, and further support at $1.0777 (August 1) and $1.0666 (June low). On the 4-hour chart, bearish momentum is gaining strength, with resistance at $1.1214 and $1.1275, while support stands at $1.1121 and $1.1083. The RSI has weakened, now sitting below 47, signaling growing selling pressure.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
Over the past six months, the inflow of capital into the Bitcoin network has seen a sharp decline, pushing Bitcoin into a prolonged consolidation phase. This trend has persisted since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, with short-term holders (STH), who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, demonstrating negative market momentum. Despite the real price gradient remaining positive, it is on a downward trajectory, indicating that Bitcoin’s price is declining at a faster rate than the capital exiting the network. While many newer investors are facing losses, their unrealized losses are relatively smaller compared to the sell-offs seen in mid-2021 and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. As the market contracts, the cost basis for newer investors tends to drag down the spot price, reflecting a "net capital outflow from the Bitcoin ecosystem."
Technical Analysis:
The cost basis for investors holding Bitcoin for one week to one month (referred to as the "fast line") has fallen below that of investors holding for one to three months (the "slow line"), signaling a net outflow in the market. This pattern suggests that "a potential market reversal could be gradually building momentum." Bitcoin's recent recovery has kept it above the $63,900 level, which is fostering optimism for further upward movement. If the price holds above the 200-day moving average of $63,900, it could signal a technically important rebound.
Disclaimer
Derivative investments involve significant risks and may result in the loss of the capital you invest. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.
RISK WARNING IN TRADING
Transactions via margin involve products that use leverage mechanisms, carry high risks, and are certainly not suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be wary of those who guarantee profits in trading. You are advised not to use funds if you are not prepared to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, ensure that you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.