Market Analysis

XAUUSD

Prediction: Potential Decline

Fundamental Analysis:

In the early Asian session, spot gold continued its downward trend, currently trading around $2,496 per ounce. Investors are closely watching today's first significant data release of the week, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is anticipated to have a substantial impact on the gold market. This week is packed with U.S. economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment changes, and non-farm payroll figures. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is expected to show an increase from 46.8 in July to 47.8. Should the PMI surpass 50, it would signal expansion in manufacturing activity, likely strengthening the U.S. dollar and exerting additional pressure on gold prices.

Technical Analysis:

The momentum has turned negative, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is trending downward and approaching a neutral level. This suggests that gold prices may continue to decline in the short term. Should the price remain below $2500, the next support level to watch is the August 22 low of $2470. A break below this level could see gold targeting the $2424-$2431 range, where the August 15 low and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) align. Conversely, if gold manages to rebound and break above $2500, the first resistance level will be at the all-time high of $2531. Surpassing this level could lead to a challenge of the $2550 resistance, with a potential upward target of $2600.

USDJPY

Prediction: Likely to Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

Recent data suggests the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates in the coming months, which could strengthen the Japanese Yen by attracting more foreign investment. In July, Tokyo's annual inflation rate, excluding fresh food, rose to 2.4%, up from 2.2% the previous month, surpassing the forecasted 2.2%, according to the Statistics Bureau of Japan. This indicates potential inflation growth across Japan. However, Japan's employment figures were less favorable, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly increasing to 2.7% in July from 2.5% in June.

Technical Analysis:

On the weekly chart, USD/JPY is trading within a narrow range between $140.78 and $147.30. For the uptrend to continue, buyers need to push the price above the recent high of $149.39. Conversely, sellers need to break below $141.69 to aim for the lower support at $140.78. On the daily chart, buyers are beginning to regain momentum and could target $148.46, but they must first overcome key resistance at $147.00 and $148.00. If sellers regain control and push the price down to $146.90, it could trigger further declines, with support levels at $146.00 and $145.00.

EURUSD

Prediction: Increase 

Fundamental Analysis: 

On Monday, EUR/USD found support near $1.1050 as it began the week, attempting to hold onto recent gains. Trading volume was light due to the closure of US markets for the Labor Day holiday. The US markets will reopen on Tuesday, kicking off a busy week featuring key US labor data. The focus will be on the JOLTS Job Openings report for July, which is expected to remain steady at 8.1 million. Meanwhile, the EU is set to release Retail Sales and GDP growth figures on Thursday and Friday, though the primary attention will be on the US labor data.

Technical Analysis: 

On Monday, EUR/USD saw a slight uptick, climbing from the $1.1050 level after three consecutive days of losses. Last week, the pair reached a 13-month high, just above $1.1200, but recent US Dollar strength has led to a pullback, with traders striving to maintain a positive outlook. The pair remains comfortably above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0845. However, despite its bullish stance, EUR/USD faces increasing downward pressure, with sellers targeting the area just above the 50-day EMA at $1.0956.

BTCUSD

Prediction: Decline

Fundamental Analysis: 

Bitcoin is likely to encounter short-term downward pressure, as historically, September has been a challenging month for the cryptocurrency, averaging a return of -4.45%. In contrast, October typically sees stronger performance, with an average return of 22.90%, based on CoinGlass data. Bitcoin miners are facing significant difficulties; August saw a decline in total Bitcoin mining revenue to $8.5136 billion, the lowest this year, marking a decrease of $99.75 million from July, according to The Block. Analysts have highlighted that $56,000 represents a critical support level for miners, with Bitcoin recently touching a low of $57,128 on Monday.

Technical Analysis: 

Over the weekend, Bitcoin fell below the immediate support level of $58,000, yet sellers were unable to push the price down to the crucial level of $55,724, suggesting stronger demand at lower price levels. Buyers will now aim to drive the price above the moving averages. A successful break above these averages could see Bitcoin rise to $65,000, though this level is anticipated to pose significant resistance in the short term, potentially keeping Bitcoin within a trading range of $55,724 to $73,777 in the coming days. Conversely, if the price falls below the 20-day moving average at $60,007, sellers may push the price down past $55,724. A sustained drop below this level could lead to a decline toward the August 5 intraday low of $49,000.

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