Market Analysis

XAUUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

Gold remains positioned for further gains, but the market is showing signs of caution. Investors are closely monitoring the U.S. labor market's health and its potential influence on the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions. Due to recent price movements, many are adopting a wait-and-see approach. The release of job data this week is likely to introduce some volatility, especially with the shortened trading week, as the North American market will be closed on Monday, September 2, for the Labor Day holiday. As gold navigates the ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, an intriguing situation is unfolding. Despite gold's solid climb above $2,500, there is no indication of a bubble or excessive buying. However, analysts warn that the recent weakening of the U.S. dollar might have been overdone, which could present risks for precious metals.

Technical Analysis:

Short-term technical indicators for gold suggest the bullish trend remains intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers around 60, with gold prices consistently trading in the upper half of the upward channel established since mid-February. In the short term, gold finds support in the $2,500-$2,490 range, a significant psychological level. Further support is found at $2,475, where the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is positioned. A daily close below $2,475 could trigger a decline towards $2,420, which aligns with the 50-day moving average. On the upside, a static resistance has emerged at $2,530. If gold breaks above this level and holds it as support, it could aim for the upper boundary of the channel at $2,600.

USDJPY

Prediction: Potential Upside

Fundamental Analysis: 

Japanese Economy Minister Yoshitaka Shindo has expressed optimism about the nation's economic recovery, citing anticipated improvements in wages and household incomes. He emphasized the government's commitment to collaborating with the Bank of Japan to adopt flexible economic policies. The USD/JPY pair has found support from a strengthening US Dollar, bolstered by rising Treasury yields. However, the Dollar's upside may be capped as market expectations lean towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September. The debate over the rate cut has been fueled by moderate US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with traders seeing a 25 basis point cut as more likely, though there's also a 36% chance of a 50 basis point reduction.

Technical Analysis: 

The USD/JPY pair is experiencing a downward trend, although it remains above the $146.00 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates mixed momentum—it resides in bearish territory but is showing signs of an upward move. Short-term buyers currently hold the upper hand, aiming to push the price toward the $146.93 and $148.46 levels before challenging the recent high of $149.39 set on August 15. On the downside, if the USD/JPY drops below the Tenkan-Sen line, it could retrace to the recent low of $143.44 from August 26. A continued decline could see sellers targeting the August 5 low of $141.69.

EURUSD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently indicated that there was no pressing need to reduce interest rates last month. However, they cautioned that this stance might be reassessed in September due to the prolonged effects of high rates on economic growth. Germany's lower-than-expected inflation data for August may challenge the ECB’s current cautious approach. With the Eurozone's advanced inflation figures set to be released on Friday, a similar outcome could prompt the ECB to consider a rate cut on September 12. If the US Federal Reserve also lowers rates, the policy gap between the Fed and ECB could narrow, which might provide some support for the EUR/USD pair.

Technical Analysis:

The EUR/USD pair is poised to test its 2024 high of $1.1201 (reached on August 26), followed by the 2023 peak of $1.1275 (from July 18), and potentially the $1.1300 psychological level. On the downside, the next key level to watch is the weekly low of $1.0881 (from August 8), along with the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.0852. The pair is likely to maintain its upward trajectory as long as it remains above the 200-day SMA. On the four-hour chart, there is a slight increase in bearish momentum. Initial resistance lies at $1.1201, with immediate support at $1.1055, followed by the 100-SMA at $1.1046 and the 200-SMA at $1.0960. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to around 35, indicating weaker bullish momentum.

BTCUSD

Prediction: Potential Upside

Fundamental Analysis: 

CoinGlass data indicates that if Bitcoin's price dips below $56,000, it could trigger the liquidation of long positions totaling $465 million across major centralized exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Bybit. Conversely, a rise above $60,000 could lead to the liquidation of short positions worth $860 million, highlighting the significance of upcoming price movements. CoinGlass emphasizes that their liquidation map offers a visual prediction of potential futures market liquidations based on historical price trends. While small liquidation clusters may have a limited impact on the market, large clusters that are close in price could trigger significant market shifts if liquidated simultaneously. Additionally, Bitcoin’s price may face pressure due to the U.S. government's planned sale of over 203,000 Bitcoins, valued at $12.1 billion. Further selling from Mt. Gox and the U.S. government could prolong Bitcoin's volatility through September.

Technical Analysis: 

Bitcoin currently has immediate support at $57,000. If the price begins to rise from this level, buyers may attempt to push it above the 20-day moving average. If successful, Bitcoin could rally to $65,000, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62,020 potentially acting as resistance, though it is expected to be surpassed. Conversely, if Bitcoin continues to decline and falls below $57,000, it would suggest that sellers remain dominant. This scenario could increase the likelihood of the price dropping below $55,724, potentially leading to a further decline toward $49,000.

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