English
English
Tiếng Việt
ภาษาไทย
繁體中文
한국어
Bahasa Indonesia
Español
Português
zu-ZA
0

Market Analysis

British Pound Hits 13-Month High Against US Dollar Amid Dollar Weakness and Market Risk Appetite
Dupoin · 179.9K Views

Market Analysis Dupoin

EURUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis: 

The Euro has strengthened against the US Dollar for the third consecutive day, reaching a new yearly high at 1.1120. This upward movement is largely due to a weakening US Dollar, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September. The potential rate cuts by the Fed, coupled with anticipated rate hikes by the European Central Bank, could further support the Euro. However, the US economy is expected to outperform Europe in the longer term, which could cap the Euro’s upside. Key events to monitor this week include the release of the FOMC Minutes, flash PMIs, a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole, and testimony from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Technical Analysis: 

EUR/USD is likely to maintain its upward momentum, potentially surpassing its 2024 high of 1.1119, the December 2023 high of 1.1139, and the 2023 peak of 1.1275. However, a decline below the critical 200-day moving average at 1.0843 could threaten the bullish trend. The nearest support levels are at 1.0978 (55-SMA), 1.0949, and 1.0881. Technical indicators point to a strong positive bias, with the Relative Strength Index currently above 80.

XAUUSD

Prediction: Bullish Outlook

Fundamental Analysis:

Gold prices remain near all-time highs, bolstered by a weakening US Dollar and growing expectations of a potential US interest rate cut in September. Investors are closely watching the upcoming release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes for additional insights into the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. However, given that a rate cut in September is largely anticipated by the market, the minutes may not significantly influence the US Dollar or gold prices.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices continue their upward trajectory, despite a recent pullback from record levels. The price remains above all key moving averages, which are still trending upward. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently at $2,492.70, while the 100-day SMA stands at $2,439.60. Technical indicators suggest that the recent dip is likely a temporary correction, and the upward momentum is expected to persist. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 65, indicating that the price remains in a strong bullish trend.

GBPUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

The British Pound has appreciated against the US Dollar for three consecutive days, reaching a 13-month peak. This upward movement is primarily due to the weakening of the US Dollar, which has been influenced by encouraging economic data from the United States. Additionally, a resurgence in market risk appetite has further pressured the US Dollar, supporting the rise in GBP/USD. Moving forward, the pair's performance will likely be swayed by overall risk sentiment, with the US stock market's movements playing a crucial role in determining the direction.

Technical Analysis:

The British Pound is likely to encounter resistance at the 1.3040 and 1.3060 levels against the US Dollar. These points correspond to key Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent downtrend. On the downside, support is anticipated at the 1.2850-1.2840 zone, with further levels at 1.2800 and 1.2760, which align with additional Fibonacci retracement levels and moving averages.

USDJPY

USD/JPY Outlook: Anticipated Decline

Fundamental Analysis:

The USD/JPY pair is holding its ground near the 145.50 mark in Asian trading on Wednesday, rebounding from recent lows of 144.95. The Japanese Yen has been gaining strength against the US Dollar since last Thursday, largely due to unexpectedly strong Japanese GDP growth. This economic boost has heightened speculation about a possible interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, the pair has found support from a stronger US Dollar, underpinned by rising Treasury yields. That said, the potential for further USD gains may be tempered by expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September. While a 25 basis point cut appears most probable, a 50 basis point reduction remains on the table.

Technical Analysis:

The USD is currently trading near 145.50 against the JPY. Technical indicators are signaling a short-term bearish trend, with the price below the 9-day EMA and the RSI hovering just above 30, suggesting a possible correction. Key support levels are identified at 141.69 (a seven-month low) and 140.25, while resistance is seen at 147.53 (9-day EMA), 153.40 (50-day EMA), and 154.50. This points to the likelihood of a downward move in the short term, although a break above resistance levels could open the door for upside potential.

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer

Derivative investments involve significant risks and may result in the loss of the capital you invest. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.

RISK WARNING IN TRADING

Transactions via margin involve products that use leverage mechanisms, carry high risks, and are certainly not suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be wary of those who guarantee profits in trading. You are advised not to use funds if you are not prepared to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, ensure that you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.

Need Help?
Click Here