

Market Analysis
XAUUSD
Forecast: Decline Expected
Fundamental Analysis:
On Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1%, with the core PPI remaining unchanged, indicating a continued deceleration in inflation. Market participants are now eyeing Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Thursday's retail sales figures to gauge the Federal Reserve's potential actions. XAU/USD experienced some selling near its monthly peak, reversing the previous day's 1% gain. A broadly positive sentiment in the stock market has diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets, while some market adjustments ahead of the critical U.S. inflation data have put additional pressure on precious metals.
Technical Analysis:
On the daily chart, gold has reached the resistance zone close to the $2483 mark. It is anticipated that sellers will emerge above this level, aiming to drive the price down to the $2360 support level. Conversely, bulls are hopeful for a breakout beyond this resistance to bolster their bullish positions and push prices to new highs. On the 4-hour chart, the price remains confined within a range between the $2360 support and the $2483 resistance. Traders might continue to "range trade," buying at support levels and selling at resistance, until a definitive breakout occurs.
USDJPY
Forecast: Likely Decline
Fundamental Analysis:
The yen has experienced a second consecutive day of weakness, while the U.S. dollar has also softened amid subdued trading conditions. Market participants are awaiting U.S. inflation data, which could influence future Federal Reserve rate decisions. The July U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased less than anticipated, as a decline in service prices offset the rise in goods costs, indicating a continued easing of inflation and contributing to the dollar's weakness. Since July, the yen’s significant appreciation has unsettled the forex market, leading to unwinding of carry trades and declines in stocks. However, with the dollar falling to $146.98 against the yen on Tuesday, it seems the market may have moved past the peak of recent volatility.
Technical Analysis:
As of Tuesday, USD/JPY is trading around $147.40. The daily chart reveals that the pair is trading below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a short-term bearish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 30, indicating a potential for a corrective move. If the RSI approaches 50, it could signal a strengthening in momentum. On the downside, USD/JPY might test the seven-month low of $141.69 reached on August 5, with further support at $140.25. On the upside, the pair could face immediate resistance around the nine-day EMA near $147.72. A breakout above this level might alleviate bearish pressure and push the pair towards the 5-day EMA at $153.68.
EURUSD
Forecast: Decline Expected
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair saw an increase on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar weakened, driven by a sharper-than-anticipated drop in Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation. Traders are now awaiting Eurozone GDP growth figures, which are set to be released early Wednesday. The focus remains on the forthcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. Eurozone GDP for the second quarter is anticipated to hold steady at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 0.6% year-on-year. Any significant deviation from these expectations could either prompt risk-off selling if the data disappoints or enhance the current bullish trend if growth exceeds forecasts.
Technical Analysis:
The EUR/USD is expected to test the August high of $1.1008 before targeting the December 2023 peak at $1.1139. On the downside, potential support levels include the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.0835, the August 1 weekly low of $1.0777, and the June 26 low of $1.0666, with further support at the May bottom of $1.0649. While bullish momentum may drive prices higher in the short term, there is a risk of technical weakness as EUR/USD struggles to maintain levels above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1.0820.
BTCUSD
Forecast: Uptrend Expected
Fundamental Insights:
Recent geopolitical tensions have impacted market sentiments, with U.S. President Biden and Iranian officials indicating that any retaliatory actions might be postponed. This comes amid Israel's evacuation order for Khan Younis following Hamas's attack on Tel Aviv. Additionally, weak U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data has heightened expectations for potential interest rate cuts, with a 50 basis point reduction now conceivable for September and a total cut of 100 basis points anticipated by year-end. Bitcoin has rebounded above $60,000. However, uncertainty looms due to ongoing withdrawals from U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs and recent Mt. Gox wallet fund transfers reported by Arkham Intelligence.
Technical Outlook:
Bitcoin's recent price movements suggest a continued upward trajectory. Currently trading near the midpoint, Bitcoin faces resistance at $67,667 and support at $54,336. If Bitcoin manages to close above the $61,001 resistance, it could signal a push towards the $67,667 resistance. A breakthrough above this level may lead to a test of the $65,000 psychological barrier, potentially drawing more buyers and enhancing bullish momentum.
Disclaimer
Derivative investments involve significant risks and may result in the loss of the capital you invest. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.
RISK WARNING IN TRADING
Transactions via margin involve products that use leverage mechanisms, carry high risks, and are certainly not suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be wary of those who guarantee profits in trading. You are advised not to use funds if you are not prepared to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, ensure that you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.