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Market Analysis

EUR/USD Slips to New Lows as ECB Rate Cut Speculation and PMI Data Loom
Dupoin · 147.6K Views

Market Analysis Dupoin

XAUUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:


The upcoming week is crucial for the U.S. economy with several significant data releases on the horizon. Anticipations of interest rate cuts have led to a stronger dollar and a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields. Consequently, gold prices have surged, breaking above $2,400 after ending a four-day losing streak. Spot gold prices have made a robust recovery, momentarily exceeding $2,410. This rebound is partly due to India’s reduction in import taxes on gold and silver, slashing them from 15% to 6%. Analysts believe this reduction could stimulate global gold demand by boosting retail purchases and curbing smuggling activities in India.

Technical Analysis:


Gold prices have halted their decline, indicating a potential upward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, reflecting increased buyer momentum, which could drive gold prices higher. For the uptrend to continue, gold needs to break above the $2,412 mark. Should it succeed, the next resistance level is $2,450, with a possibility of challenging the all-time high of $2,483. Conversely, if gold dips below the recent low of $2,384 from July 22, a more significant correction could ensue, with the next support level being the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,359.

 

 

EURUSD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:


Officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) have suggested the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year, leading some euro buyers to hesitate. Currently, investor attention is shifting towards the Eurozone PMI data. This upcoming data will be crucial in determining whether the current trend of the euro continues. Positive PMI data might lower the likelihood of additional ECB rate cuts, potentially halting the euro's decline. Conversely, negative data could exert further downward pressure on the euro.

Technical Analysis:


The euro experienced a drop early Tuesday, bringing the EUR/USD pair to fresh lows near $1.0850. The pair is attempting to stabilize ahead of significant trading on Wednesday. The EUR/USD has declined nearly 1% from its recent peak of $1.0948. Despite still being above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0804, this week's downward movement increases its susceptibility to further declines, suggesting a return to a bearish trend.

 

 

 

USDJPY

Forecast: Likely Decline

Fundamental Analysis:

The USD/JPY pair is trading around $155.85, having reversed a two-day decline as of early Wednesday in Asia. However, the pair's upward momentum may be curtailed by mounting expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will persist with interest rate hikes to strengthen the yen. According to Reuters, Toshimitsu Motegi, a senior member of the ruling party, has suggested that the BoJ should clearly signal its commitment to normalizing monetary policy through gradual rate increases. This anticipation could lend support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and exert downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD).

Technical Analysis:

Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with the RSI falling below the neutral 50 level, indicating potential for further declines in the USD/JPY pair. The initial support level is at $155.00. A break below this level could lead to a decline towards $154.55, the low from June 4, then to $151.86, the low from May 3, and potentially down to $146.48, the low from March 8. Conversely, if the pair rises above $156.33, it could advance further, with the next resistance level positioned at $157.00.

 

 

BTCUSD

Prediction: Decline Expected

Fundamental Analysis:


Bitcoin has experienced a recent decline following the commencement of Mt. Gox’s repayment process. The exchange is in the process of returning over 140,000 bitcoins, valued at approximately $8.5 billion, to its creditors. According to updates from a Telegram group for Mt. Gox creditors, repayments are being facilitated through the Kraken crypto exchange, including Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash (BCH). Additionally, the U.S. government transferred 58.74 bitcoins, valued at nearly $4 million, to Coinbase Prime, which has sparked speculation about its intended use.

Technical Analysis:


Technically, Bitcoin recently rebounded from its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, reaching a peak of around $68,486 over the weekend. This level offered temporary support. However, the formation of a hanging man candlestick pattern overnight indicated a potential bearish reversal, which appears to be unfolding. Immediate support levels are now between $64,370 and $63,737, aligned with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Should Bitcoin fall below this support range, the next significant support is anticipated around $61,751, with further support just above the psychological $60,000 level, where the 200-day moving average is positioned.

 

 

 

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