Market Analysis

XAUUSD 

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis

Gold prices have been on a three-day losing streak, dropping to around $2,410 per ounce. This decline is driven by several factors, including a slight weakening of the US dollar and speculation surrounding the upcoming US presidential election. The possibility of a "Trump trade" resurgence and a potential Republican victory have strengthened the US dollar and increased Treasury bond yields, making gold a less attractive investment. Additionally, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September have further diminished the appeal of the non-yielding gold asset. Overall, these market developments are exerting selling pressure on gold prices.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices have continued their downward trend, reaching approximately $2,410 during Friday's European trading session. This decline follows the metal's inability to maintain levels above the critical $2,450 mark. Despite the recent drop, the near-term outlook for gold remains positive, as the short to long-term exponential moving averages are still trending upwards. The rising trendline from the February 14th low of $1,984.30 is anticipated to provide significant support for gold bulls. Although the 14-day Relative Strength Index has fallen to 58, suggesting a loss of upward momentum, the overall upward bias for gold appears to persist.

EURUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD pair has maintained its gains below the 1.0900 level during the Asian trading session on Monday, despite a general risk-averse sentiment and a weakened US dollar. Market participants are now focused on updates from the US political landscape and medium-level economic data from both the EU and US for new trading impulses.

The US dollar regained some momentum on Thursday, pushing the US Dollar Index back above the 104.00 mark, buoyed by a rebound in US yields. This development followed the EUR/USD pair's pause in a two-session rally, influenced by a dovish stance from the ECB and a slight increase in German 10-year bund yields.

Technical Analysis:

The EUR/USD pair is anticipated to encounter its next upward resistance at 1.0948, followed by the March high of 1.0981 and the psychological level of 1.1000. Should the bears regain control, the pair may target the 200-day SMA of 1.0810, potentially sliding to the June low of 1.0666 and the May low of 1.0649, with a possible reach towards the 2024 bottom of 1.0601.

In the broader perspective, further gains seem likely if the significant 200-day SMA is convincingly surpassed. In the near term, the 4-hour chart indicates some loss of upward momentum, with initial resistance at 1.0948, 1.0981, and 1.1000, and support at the 55-SMA of 1.0872, the 200-SMA of 1.0793, and 1.0709. The relative strength index has dropped to around 47.

USDJPY 

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

The USD/JPY pair is easing below 157.50 during Asian trading on Friday, with the Japanese Yen strengthening due to warnings from authorities. Despite this, the broad strength of the US Dollar and rising US Treasury bond yields are keeping the pair afloat ahead of key speeches from Federal Reserve officials.

Recently, the Japanese Yen has gained against the US Dollar, potentially due to intervention by Japanese authorities, causing the USD/JPY pair to drop to a one-month low. Traders remain vigilant for further interventions, as officials have cautioned that they will address "excessive" movements in the currency market.

The US Dollar is supported by a slight uptick in US Treasury yields. However, its upward movement might be restrained by the high likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

Technical Analysis:

The USD/JPY pair is trading around 156.30 as of Thursday. The daily chart indicates that the pair is below its 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting short-term downward momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the 50 level, reinforcing a bearish outlook. The key support level for the pair is around June's low at 154.55; a break below this level could lead to further declines towards May's low at 151.86.

On the upside, immediate resistance is found around the 9-day EMA at 158.27. A breakthrough above this level could potentially drive the USD/JPY pair to test the pullback resistance around the psychological level of 162.00.

GBPUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

In the American session on Friday, the GBP/USD pair is edging closer to 1.2900, pressured by disappointing UK Retail Sales data and a rebound in the US Dollar (USD) amid a worsening market mood. After a negative close on Thursday, the pair remains under bearish pressure as the USD gains from risk-averse sentiment, with Wall Street's main indexes turning lower. The weaker-than-expected Retail Sales data for June in the UK adds further weight to the Pound Sterling.

With no high-impact data releases on the economic calendar before the weekend, risk perception is likely to continue driving the GBP/USD's movement. Investors will also be attentive to comments from Federal Reserve officials before the Fed's blackout period begins.

Technical Analysis:

The GBP/USD pair has fallen below the lower boundary of the ascending regression channel established since early July. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart has dipped below 40, indicating increasing bearish pressure.

On the downside, immediate support is at 1.2900, followed by 1.2875 and the 1.2820-1.2830 region, which coincides with the 100-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

On the upside, the initial resistance is at 1.2930, the 50-period SMA, followed by 1.2960, the lower boundary of the ascending channel, and the psychological level of 1.3000.

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