Market Analysis

XAUUSD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI has declined from 48.7 in April to 48.5 in June, falling short of the anticipated 49.1. Additionally, the employment index from the PMI survey decreased from 51.1 in May to 49.3. On a positive note, the new orders index rose from 45.4 to 49.3. Although the initial drop in the manufacturing index initially weakened the dollar, it rebounded following a Supreme Court decision favoring Trump. Investors are now shifting their attention to upcoming U.S. job data, which may provide insights into a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Technical Analysis:
Despite the rise in U.S. bond yields, gold prices continue to ascend. Gold remains well-supported near $2300 but requires further positive developments to sustain its upward momentum. Should gold prices surpass the 50-day moving average of $2337, they may target the next resistance range of $2390-$2400. Currently, gold is encountering resistance near the 55-day moving average of $2339.21. If prices remain below this level and dip under the 5-day moving average of $2323.29, the short-term bullish outlook weakens. For the medium-term trend, monitor for a breakout within the $2291.65-$2368.72 range.

EURUSD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

The recent uptick in the Greenback caused EUR/USD to retreat from its earlier surge to multi-day highs near 1.0780, as investors absorbed the results of the French election on June 30. Broadly, the macroeconomic landscapes on both sides of the Atlantic remained stable. The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further rate cuts beyond summer, with market expectations anticipating two more cuts later this year. 

Conversely, market participants are debating whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement one or two rate cuts this year, despite the Committee predicting just one cut, likely in December, at their June 12 meeting. Notably, the ongoing appreciation of the US Dollar is partly due to hawkish remarks from Fed officials and the expanding monetary policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks, contributing to the euro's depreciation.

Technical Analysis:

Recently, the EUR/USD entered a rising channel, initially dropping to the support line and breaking the $1.0675 level. It quickly rebounded above $1.0675, continuing its upward trajectory within the channel. EUR/USD then reached the $1.0865 level, which aligned with a resistance area, and traded around this level for some time. Following a false breakout above $1.0865, the pair made a downward move to the $1.0675 level, exiting the channel. Given this context, the Euro might fall to a support area and then potentially bounce back up to $1.0800, exiting the triangle pattern.

USDJPY

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

The USD/JPY has surpassed the 161.00 mark as US Treasury bond yields surged sharply on Monday. This came after US economic data indicated that manufacturing activity, as measured by the ISM PMI, contracted for the third consecutive month in June. Currently, the pair trades at 161.49, marking a 0.38% gain. The trend remains upward, and the absence of intervention from Japanese authorities and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could further elevate the USD/JPY. However, the next significant resistance level to watch is the November 1986 monthly high of 164.87, with traders needing to overcome several resistance points along the way.

Technical Analysis: 

The initial resistance for the USD/JPY stands at 162.00, followed by the 163.00 level. Breaking through this will pave the way towards 164.00 and the high from November 1986. On the downside, if sellers push the exchange rate below 161.00, the first support level is the April 29 high at 160.22. Further support levels include the Tenkan Sen at 155.66 and the Senkou Span A at 158.90.

BTCUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

Tokyo-listed Metaplanet has demonstrated growing corporate confidence in Bitcoin by further increasing its BTC reserves. The recent acquisition has pushed the company’s total holdings beyond the $10 million mark. This purchase aligns with Bitcoin's positive start to July, as the cryptocurrency begins to regain recently lost gains. Currently, Bitcoin is trading above $63,000, reflecting an almost 3% increase over the past day.

Technical Analysis:

Utilizing Fibonacci extensions for price action analysis, potential entry points can be identified as prices cross these levels. Should the price rise above 1 ($64,414), Bitcoin could potentially reach as high as $72,896. Conversely, if the price falls below 0.786 ($61,476), the profit-taking level to watch for would be $59,170.

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