Market Analysis

XAUUSD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

Recent data from the U.S. Department of Labor revealed a notable increase in Continuing Jobless Claims, reaching levels not seen since late 2021. This suggests a prolonged job search period for many individuals. Concurrently, new claims for unemployment benefits decreased to 233,000 last week, accounting for the Independence Day holiday. Investors are now awaiting the core PCE data, projected to show a decline in the annual core PCE price index from 2.8% in April to 2.6%, marking the lowest since March 2021.

Technical Analysis:

Gold's Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bearish sentiment as it remains below the 50 midpoint. The next significant support level for gold stands at $2300; a breach below this could push prices towards the May 3 low of $2277. Conversely, if gold manages to climb back to $2350, it may target higher resistance levels, such as the June 7 high of $2387. A breakthrough above this resistance could lead to further gains towards $2400.

EURUSD

Prediction: Decline

Fundamental Analysis:

EUR/USD experienced buying interest on Thursday but remained near $1.0700 as uncertainty prevailed ahead of the US inflation report on Friday. However, early Friday in Asia saw a significant drop, with the pair hovering around $1.069. European economic data has been moderate in the latter part of the trading week, shifting attention to the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index release.

Technical Analysis:

Thursday saw EUR/USD attracting buyers, rebounding from below $1.0680 to touch the 200-hour EMA at $1.0717 before stabilizing near $1.0700. As of Friday's session, EUR/USD is confined within a narrow range on daily charts, trending within a downward channel and staying below the 200-day EMA at $1.0785. Support rests at $1.0667, with resistance at $1.070. The RSI below 50 indicates prevailing selling pressure in the market.

USDJPY

Prediction :Potential Upside Amid Economic Data

Fundamental Analysis:

USD/JPY reached $161.00, marking its highest level since 1986 during the Asian session on Friday. Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a rise to 2.3%, up from the previous 2.2%. Core Tokyo CPI, excluding food prices, also increased to 2.1% from 1.9%, surpassing market expectations of 2.0%. The Yen weakened as a result of the subdued inflation figures, boosting the USD/JPY exchange rate.

Technical Analysis:

Technically, USD/JPY exhibits signs of being overbought, with the RSI on the daily chart approaching overbought levels. The pair is steadily advancing towards the critical $160 level, historically significant due to past Japanese intervention. Immediate market reactions may await upcoming US economic data releases later in the week. A strong US data outcome could propel the pair towards testing $163.00. Conversely, key support lies at $151.95, which remains pivotal for future price movements.

BTCUSD

Prediction: Upside Potential

Fundamental Analysis:

Bitcoin has shown price recovery concurrent with increased inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETFs. These funds now manage approximately $52.61 billion in Bitcoin, up from $47 billion in early May. Recent data indicates a shift from outflows to net positive inflows, with $31 million and $21.3 million recorded on June 25 and 26 respectively, reversing a trend of seven consecutive days of outflows.

Technical Analysis:

BTC encountered resistance near the lower boundary of a previously broken descending wedge on Wednesday. Subsequently, it has declined by approximately 1.75%, currently trading around $60,777. If the resistance at $62,000 persists, BTC could potentially retreat by around 4% to test its weekly support level near $58,375.

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