Market Analysis

XAUUSD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

Gold prices have dropped nearly 1%, slipping below $2300. Analysts attribute this decline to the significant rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which has bolstered the US dollar, negatively impacting gold prices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield reached a two-week high, and the dollar hit its highest level in nearly two months, making gold more costly for holders of other currencies. In anticipation of Friday's U.S. PCE price index release, gold prices fell over 0.91% on Wednesday due to the stronger dollar and increased U.S. Treasury yields.

Technical Analysis:

XAU/USD has fallen below the crucial support level of $2300. Should prices remain under this level, they could potentially drop to $2277, the low from May 3, and then to $2222, the high from March 21. Conversely, if gold prices rebound to $2350 per ounce, they could target the key resistance level of $2387 per ounce, the high from June 7, and subsequently aim for $2400 per ounce.

EURUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis

The euro, which fell to its weakest level since early May on Wednesday, edged up 0.01% to $1.0680. The common currency is on track to lose approximately 1.5% this month, primarily due to political unrest in the eurozone ahead of France's upcoming snap election this weekend. Market participants are closely monitoring the situation, particularly focusing on two leading factions: Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally and the leftist New Popular Front alliance. Concerns about future government policies could lead to market volatility. The 10-year OAT yield rose by 4.5 basis points to 3.166%, while the 10-year OAT-Bund yield spread widened by 2.5 basis points to 73.5 basis points, according to Tradeweb. The euro dropped 0.4% to $1.0672.

Technical Analysis

Despite important American session news data being worse than expected yesterday, the EUR/USD price continued its decline to the 1.0700 level. Our target is for the price to return to the 1.0750 zone, and if the strength continues, to 1.0775. We observe the price touching the support level of 1.0667 and bouncing off it, indicating a strong support area. This is a strategic point to place buy orders with profit-taking levels set at 1.0763 and 1.0793.

USDJPY

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

The USD/JPY recently surged to an all-time high of $160.68. Japan's retail sales for May showed an unexpected 3% year-on-year growth, surpassing the anticipated 2%. However, the previous quarter's retail trade growth rate was revised down from 2.4% to 2.0%. This larger-than-expected decline in retail sales may reflect the negative impact of the yen's depreciation on private consumption, as a weaker yen increases import costs, affecting consumer prices and household spending. Consequently, the Bank of Japan might need to adopt more proactive measures in response to U.S. Treasury yield trends.

Technical Analysis:

Should the USD/JPY break above Wednesday's high of $160.872, it could potentially reach $162. On the other hand, a drop below $160 could bring the 50-day moving average into focus. Falling below this average may prompt bears to target the support level at $151.685. With the 14-day RSI at 70, indicating an overbought condition, the high of $160.872 might intensify selling pressure.

BTCUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

Significant Bitcoin investors, commonly known as whales, have been discreetly accumulating Bitcoin as its price begins to recover from a recent decline, which saw it drop just above the $58,000 mark. According to on-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock, these large holders, who control at least 0.1% of Bitcoin’s total supply, added 7,130 BTC, valued at approximately $436 million, to their wallets in a single day amid the price decrease. This activity is reflected in the “Large Holders Netflow” metric, which monitors the net movement of Bitcoin in and out of wallets associated with these major investors. IntoTheBlock defines large Bitcoin holders as those with at least 19,700 BTC, roughly $1.2 billion.

Technical Analysis:

Bitcoin entered oversold territory after falling below $62,000, according to Martinez. Despite continuing to decline to just over $58,000, it has since rebounded and is currently trading at $61,100. Historically, instances of the RSI reaching oversold levels have often been followed by significant price increases for Bitcoin. In August 2023, a similar RSI signal was followed by a notable 197% rally. In November 2022 and March 2023, oversold levels preceded price surges of 60% and 62%, respectively.

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