Market Analysis
XAUUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices reversed course on Friday, dropping over 1.70%. This movement was influenced by U.S. economic data that led investors to reconsider the likelihood of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, given the economy's strength. XAU/USD is currently trading at $2,317, down from its opening price after reaching a daily high of $2,368.
The U.S. economy continues to present mixed signals regarding its health. S&P Global reported that June’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings surpassed expectations and outperformed May’s figures. However, the U.S. housing market showed signs of weakening, with May's Existing Home Sales missing forecasts and declining compared to April's data.
Technical Analysis:
From a technical standpoint, a sustained close above the 50-day SMA could serve as a new bullish signal. Additionally, oscillators on the daily chart are gaining positive momentum, indicating potential for further price appreciation. Consequently, XAU/USD might target the next resistance level around the $2,378-2,380 region, with an eventual aim to reach the $2,400 mark.
EURUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
The Bank of England's (BoE) dovish stance on Thursday has increased expectations for an interest rate cut in August. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently decided to lower borrowing costs, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) also delivered its second rate cut of 2024 on Thursday. These developments, coupled with a sustained breakout below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Thursday, support a bearish outlook for EUR/USD.
Technical Analysis:
The EUR/USD price reached our initial target at the 200 MA of 1.0675$. We anticipate the bearish momentum to continue, pushing the price further down to the next target at 1.0600$, aided by the negative pressure from the EMA50. The bearish trend is expected to persist unless the price breaches the 1.0795$ level and sustains above it.
USDJPY
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
During its June 13-14 meeting, the Bank of Japan highlighted concerns about the impact of high living costs on consumer spending. The board members showed divided opinions regarding the timing of another rate hike as part of their policy normalization efforts. While one member advocated for an early rate increase, others urged caution. According to the meeting summary released recently, one board member emphasized the increasing upside risks to prices and their influence on consumer sentiment. Ahead of the next meeting, the member recommended closely monitoring economic data and considering an early policy rate adjustment to better align with the 2% price stability target.
Technical Analysis:
USD/JPY experienced a significant upward rally recently, surpassing the initial target at 158.40 and reaching the 159.00 mark. This momentum suggests a continued bullish trend in the intraday and short-term outlooks, with the next major target set at 160.20.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Ethereum gas prices and Bitcoin miner revenue are nearing record lows, indicating a challenging environment. Early concerns about Bitcoin's technical underpinnings have been disproven, affirming the effectiveness of Satoshi Nakamoto's engineering decisions such as the one-megabyte block size and ten-minute block frequency. With over 846,448 blocks mined without a major hack, the network demonstrates robust resilience and security. Growing regulatory acceptance, institutional endorsements, and national adoption further validate Bitcoin's status as a legitimate asset.
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin has maintained a stable trend over the past three weeks, showing no clear signs of a significant move in either direction. The daily BTC/USD chart presents a bullish setup, supported by all three simple moving averages, suggesting potential upward momentum. The recent correction has seen the price dip below the 0.5 Fibonacci level and test the 0.382 support, signaling a possible consolidation before a potential upward movement in the near term.
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