

Market Analysis
XAUUSD
Forecast: Potential Downtrend
Fundamental Analysis:
The XAU/USD pair has struggled to sustain its rebound, currently trading within a narrow range. Over the past ten days, gold has remained within familiar territory as traders await clearer signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts. Tuesday's weaker U.S. retail sales data indicates that American consumer spending is weakening, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates, possibly as early as September and again in December. Despite the overnight dip in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar remains under pressure, offering some support to gold prices.
Technical Analysis:
For buyers, a decisive move above the 50-day SMA, with resistance around $2,344-$2,345, is crucial. If this level is breached, gold could target the $2,360-$2,362 supply zone, followed by $2,387-$2,388, and potentially reaching $2,400. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the $2,300 level, with further support at $2,285. A break below this threshold could extend the decline from recent highs, possibly pushing gold down to the next support area around $2,254-$2,253. This reflects the cautious stance of traders as they await more definitive signals regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts.
EURUSD
Prediction: Likely Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD exchange rate shows stability, but persistent political uncertainties and economic concerns are exerting pressure on the euro. This has tempered expectations for a strong rebound in EUR/USD. The upcoming European Commission announcement on countries facing excessive deficit procedures, including Italy and Poland, alongside potential actions affecting France and others, could impact market sentiment in Europe.
Technical Analysis:
Currently, EUR/USD is encountering resistance around $1.0750, aligned with the 200-hour EMA at $1.0767. However, daily price patterns suggest potential movement towards the 200-day EMA near 1.0800. Initial support levels are seen at $1.0667 and $1.0649. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 indicates moderate upward momentum, suggesting room for further market gains.
USDJPY
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
USD/JPY is currently trading near a seven-week peak around $158.00 during Wednesday's European session. The recent uptrend has paused amidst uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions and the imminent release of Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, scheduled for Friday. This week, market focus will primarily be on Japan's CPI figures. Analysts anticipate the annual National CPI, excluding fresh food, to climb to 2.6%, up from the previous 2.2%.
Technical Analysis:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in positive territory, supporting buyer sentiment. Key resistance lies initially at the June 17 high of $158.25. A successful breach could pave the way towards further targets such as the April 26 peak at $158.44 and the year's highest point at $160.32. Conversely, if USD/JPY retraces below $157.00, sellers are likely to target support levels starting at $156.16, followed by $155.52.
US Oil
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
The US oil market has seen subdued activity due to a holiday, while weak US retail sales data has heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. This has weakened the dollar index, lending support to oil prices. Additionally, concerns over supply disruptions have escalated following a Ukrainian drone attack that ignited an oil terminal at a key Russian port. Israeli statements hinting at imminent regional conflict further fuel anxiety about potential disruptions to major oil producers' supplies.
Technical Analysis:
WTI US Crude Oil recently peaked at $72.45 before consolidating. It has closed positively in seven of the last eleven trading sessions and is trading above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) set at $78.84. However, a potential loss in buying momentum could push prices below the 200-day EMA, potentially leading to a decline and breaching a downward trendline from this year's high around $87.00 per barrel.
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