

Market Analysis
XAUUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices experienced a dip to $2315 before rebounding to $2321. The Federal Reserve's recent forecast indicates that the majority of the 19 central bank officials anticipate only one interest rate cut this year, with some suggesting it might occur in December. Additionally, Israel has announced a temporary ceasefire to facilitate aid but will continue its operations in Rafah. There are no significant economic reports from the US this week to provide further insight into the Federal Reserve's future actions.
Technical Analysis:
The outlook for gold prices is neutral to slightly bearish. Momentum indicators reveal that sellers are gaining momentum, with the 14-RSI deepening into bearish territory, potentially leading to further declines. Should gold prices drop below $2,300, the initial support level is at the May 3 low of $2,277, followed by the March 21 high of $2,222. Conversely, if prices rebound and surpass the June 7 high of $2,387, they may test the $2,400 level.
EURUSD
Predicted Movement: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
On Monday, the focus in the US economic calendar will be on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Investor attention is likely to be more drawn towards indications from central bank officials regarding potential future rate cuts. Any hints of a forthcoming rate cut could strengthen the USD, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD. Conversely, signals suggesting policy changes in September may weaken the USD.
Technical Analysis:
EUR/USD saw an upward movement on Monday, extending gains from Friday's low around $1.0670. Currently, it remains below the 200-hour EMA at $1.0770 and continues to form lower highs, indicating a potential downtrend. Daily charts reflect a strong downward trajectory since dropping below the 200-day EMA at $1.0803. Despite possible upward momentum that could trigger a bounce from below $1.0700, persistent pressure from lower highs observed since December's peak near $1.1140 suggests challenges for sustained price increases.
USDJPY
Prediction: Bullish
Fundamental Analysis:
Recently, the Bank of Japan concluded its monetary policy meeting by maintaining the policy interest rate target at 0-0.1%. They also confirmed ongoing long-term government bond purchases, set to decrease with a specific reduction plan to be decided in July. The central bank's focus remains on monitoring yen depreciation's impact on inflation, with a potential interest rate hike in July pending economic data.
Technical Analysis:
USD/JPY continues its upward trajectory, though cautious buying was evident on Monday amid concerns over potential Japanese regulatory interventions. Key resistance levels ahead include $158.25, marked as the June 17 peak, and $158.44, observed on April 26. Conversely, a drop below $157.00 could attract selling pressure, targeting initial support at $156.16, followed by $155.93.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
Based on recent trends, Bitcoin's spot ETF has witnessed outflows on four of the past five days. Despite short-term weakness, long-term investors remain optimistic, evidenced by continued accumulation among large wallets holding 10 or more Bitcoins, now totaling 16.6 million, the highest since June 2022. Bitcoin's current price action suggests it's consolidating within a range, with potential support anticipated at current levels.
Technical Analysis:
Technical indicators highlight resistance at the 50-day moving average of $66,189, indicating ongoing seller pressure. Key support rests at $64,602, with a potential downside to $60,000 if breached. A bullish scenario hinges on reclaiming the 20-day moving average of $67,612, possibly targeting $70,000 thereafter.
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