Market Analysis

XAUUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

XAU/USD continued its upward trend from the previous trading session. On Wednesday, spot gold prices surged by more than $28. This rise is driven by increasing expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and declining U.S. Treasury yields, which are boosting gold prices. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are prompting investors to seek gold as a safe haven. On Wednesday, the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued a stark warning that Israel would "pay the price" for Monday's airstrike in Syria, asserting that Israel must "pay with blood." Spot gold closed up $28.45 on Wednesday, a 1.22% increase, reaching $2355.11.

Technical Analysis:

Our focus is on the critical $2,325 level for the coming week, a historically significant mark that is likely to influence trading dynamics. Sustained momentum above this level could attract further buying interest, potentially leading to new highs. On the other hand, a decline below $2,325 could indicate a return of bearish sentiment.

EURUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD pair is trading around $1.088 despite the US Dollar's strength during early Asian trading on Thursday. The market's attention is on the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference by President Christine Lagarde later today. The ECB is anticipated to cut interest rates by 0.25% at its June 6 meeting. This divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve could apply downward pressure on the Euro, potentially presenting challenges for the EUR/USD pair.

Technical Analysis:

If the bulls sustain their momentum, EUR/USD might test the June high of 1.0916 (June 4), followed by the March peak of 1.0981 (March 8) and the weekly high of 1.0998 (January 11), before aiming for the significant 1.1000 mark. Conversely, if bearish sentiment prevails, the pair could initially revisit the weekly low of 1.0788 (May 30), supported by the 200-day SMA. A decline below this level might drive the spot price to the May low of 1.0649 (May 1) and then to the 2024 bottom of 1.0601 (April 16). 

Currently, the 4-hour chart indicates a consolidative phase in the near term. The next support levels on the downside are the 55-SMA (1.0851), followed by 1.0788 and 1.0766. On the upside, resistance stands at 1.0916 and then 1.0942. The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to around 50, indicating neutral momentum.

USDJPY

Prediction: Upward Movement Expected

Fundamental Analysis:

The Japanese yen saw significant decline recently due to robust U.S. economic indicators, bolstering the dollar. This reversed the yen's brief strengthening over the past two days against the US dollar. The U.S. Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) business activity index provided strong support to the dollar, leading to further weakness in the yen earlier this week. Future movements in the USD/JPY exchange rate will hinge largely on forthcoming key U.S. economic data releases.

Technical Analysis:

Technically, USD/JPY maintains an upward bias despite pulling back towards the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 154.82 recently. Buyers have pushed the exchange rate higher, forming a bullish harami candlestick pattern, suggesting potential for additional gains. Short-term momentum favors buyers, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in bullish territory. Initial resistance for USD/JPY is expected around the 156.50 level. Breaking this could lead to further gains towards the highs seen on May 30 at 157.68 and April 26 at 158.44, with potential to test the year-to-date high of 160.32. On the downside, initial support is seen around 156.00.

BTCUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

Based on recent trends, Bitcoin has surged above $70,000, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains. This rally reflects growing market confidence fueled by expectations of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve amid signs of slowing U.S. inflation and weakening job market data. These developments have led traders to speculate that rate cuts could commence as early as November, contributing to a notable decline in certain Treasury yields. Such easing financial conditions are generally favorable for speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.

Technical Analysis:

Technically, Bitcoin remains in a bullish phase, currently positioned within the 0.618 - 1 Fibonacci zone and maintaining levels above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Analysts anticipate further upward movement, predicting a potential move towards its all-time high around $73,500 once surpassing the $72,000 mark.

Disclaimer

Derivative investments involve significant risks and may result in the loss of the capital you invest. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.

RISK WARNING IN TRADING

Transactions via margin involve products that use leverage mechanisms, carry high risks, and are certainly not suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be wary of those who guarantee profits in trading. You are advised not to use funds if you are not prepared to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, ensure that you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.