Market Analysis

XAUUSD

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

In April, the number of job openings in the US dropped to its lowest level in over three years, indicating a gradual slowdown in the labor market. This has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year. XAU/USD retreated after briefly rising above $2,330. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings decreased to 8.059 million in April, down from 8.36 million the previous month, falling short of all expectations.

Technical Analysis:

XAU/USD has fallen below the 50-day SMA of $2334, with bearish momentum suggesting a potential further decline. The 14-RSI has dropped below the 50 midline, indicating increased selling pressure. If the price breaks below $2334, it might test the May 8th low of $2303 and subsequently the May 3rd low of $2277. Conversely, if buyers push the price back up to $2350, gold could aim for the next target of $2400.

EURUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD declined from approximately $1.0900 during Tuesday's US trading session amidst renewed strength in the US dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the USD against a basket of major currencies, rebounded significantly. This occurred despite weaker-than-expected US manufacturing PMI data for May, which raised concerns of economic slowdown but tempered worries about persistent inflation.

Technical Analysis:

In a scenario favoring buyers, the EUR/USD exchange rate could target recent highs, including June's peak of $1.0916, followed by March's high at $1.0981, and the weekly peak of $1.0998 from January 11th. Conversely, if selling pressure intensifies, the rate may dip below the weekly low of $1.0788 recorded on May 30th, supported by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Further downside could see the rate testing the May low of $1.0649. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to around 56.

USDJPY

Prediction: Decline Expected

Fundamental Analysis:

USD/JPY declined to approximately $155.00 recently amid investor aversion to risk, bolstering the Japanese yen. Rumors of potential bond purchase reductions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) contributed to upward pressure on Japanese bond yields, influencing yen strength. Meanwhile, the US dollar rebounded slightly following a significant drop, prompted by lower-than-expected US manufacturing PMI figures for May.

Technical Analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY completed a corrective wave, reaching $157.70 before initiating a new downward wave targeting $153.77. Following this target, a minor bounce to around $155.44 is anticipated, followed by potential further declines towards $149.70. The 14-period RSI indicator around 38 suggests potential oversold conditions, indicating a prevailing downward trend in the medium term.

BTCUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis: 

Based on the upcoming ECB interest rate cut scheduled for June 6th, there's anticipation that Bitcoin could see increased inflows this week. Lower ECB rates, expected to drop by 0.25% to 4.25%, often stimulate interest in higher-risk assets like Bitcoin. This move is aimed at bolstering economic growth by weakening the EUR and boosting liquidity, potentially benefiting Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis: 

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin's price is testing the May high around $71.9k. If it breaks above $70k and maintains this level, a quick rise to $72k is likely, possibly pushing towards its all-time high of $73,778. The medium-to-long-term outlook remains favorable, supported by significant BTC ETF purchases exceeding post-halving production levels. However, failing to surpass $71.9k may lead Bitcoin's price back below the crucial $70k mark in the short term.

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