Market Analysis
XAUUSD
XAUUSD Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
There is a growing expectation that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates in September, which has been contributing to a decline in gold prices. This week's economic data from the US and statements from the Federal Reserve will be crucial in shaping short-term market sentiment and future movements of XAU/USD. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak today, potentially providing insights into the direction of US monetary policy. Additionally, the US will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) today and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday.
Technical Analysis:
The medium-term trend is supported by the 50-day moving average (MA) line at $2269.33. In the short term, the price range is between $2431.59 and $2277.34, with the market currently trading weakly around the pivot point of $2340. Gold prices remain above the crucial 100-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates upward momentum. The key support level is around $2325, aligning with the location of the 100-period EMA.
EURUSD
EURUSD Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair is hovering just below the $1.0800 mark with little movement. This lack of volatility is mirrored in other major currency pairs, as market participants are not receiving new directional cues. Central banks are maintaining their current monetary policies longer than anticipated due to persistent inflation that hasn't aligned with targets, coupled with a robust job market. Investors are eagerly awaiting the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Wednesday for potential insights into future market movements.
Technical Analysis:
Key resistance levels for the EUR/USD pair are positioned at $1.08115 and $1.08464, which could pose challenges for an upward trend. Conversely, support levels are noted at $1.07240 and $1.06897. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are currently above the pivot point around $1.07500, underscoring the significance of this level.
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is trending upwards, remaining above all its moving averages. The 20 SMA is rising more rapidly than the longer-term moving averages, indicating a positive trend. Additionally, technical indicators are showing increasing momentum at positive levels, suggesting that the upward trend may continue.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD Prediction: Decline
Fundamental Analysis:
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey expressed optimism about the possibility of lowering interest rates, citing encouraging inflation data. Prior to the weekend, assertive remarks from some Federal Reserve officials curtailed the GBP/USD's potential rise. The UK's Office for National Statistics will release labor market data on Tuesday morning in Europe, which is expected to influence the GBP/USD direction.
Technical Analysis:
GBP/USD faces resistance at $1.26328 and $1.26965, potentially hindering upward movement. Support is identified at $1.24459 and $1.24032. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) acts as a barrier at 1.2540. Should GBP/USD surpass this level and sustain it as support, the next target range could be 1.2590-1.2600.
US Oil
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
Despite heightened tensions in the Middle East following the US decision to suspend certain arms deliveries to Israel over concerns regarding the situation in Rafah, US oil prices have not risen. Instead, crude oil prices continue to decline. Additionally, there is increasing speculation that OPEC+ might not reverse its voluntary production cuts at the upcoming June meeting.
Technical Analysis:
On Monday, the price of WTI crude oil continued its decline. Last week, it failed to reach the upper boundary of the downward channel at $80.20. Simultaneously, the 14-day RSI remains steady, indicating potential sideways movement in the price. Currently, there are no definitive short-term market direction signals, but it is still advisable to sell when prices are high.
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