Market Analysis

XAUUSD

Forecast: Upward Trend

Fundamental Analysis:

Gold recently surged to $2324 amidst prevailing risk aversion sentiments in the market. Ongoing tensions between Hamas and Israel intensified as Hamas reiterated its demand for a ceasefire in exchange for releasing prisoners, which was firmly rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Meanwhile, Israel evacuated 10,000 residents from Rafah in anticipation of potential ground combat. 

Additionally, the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report fell short of anticipated growth, sparking speculation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and consequently bolstering gold prices. Investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East's political landscape and the progress of ceasefire negotiations. Although Hamas has accepted a ceasefire proposal, including complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, Israel has expressed dissatisfaction, signaling uncertainty. Should hopes for a ceasefire wane, gold prices are likely to see further increases.

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD recently tested its upper limit around $2326 before retracing slightly, coinciding with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). There's potential for further retracement towards the lower end of the range at $2280, or a breakout above the range's upper limit towards resistance at $2353, corresponding to peak volatility observed at the end of April.

EURUSD

Prediction: Upward Movement

Fundamental Analysis:

Philip Lane, the Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, expressed increased confidence in the return of inflation to the target of 2%, citing recent data. This sentiment raises the likelihood of a potential rate cut in June. Last week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated a reduction in pressure within the service sector for the first time since November of the previous year. Strengthened inflation forecasts for April and robust first-quarter GDP data in the eurozone have bolstered market confidence in the prospect of inflation returning on schedule.

Technical Analysis:

The upcoming resistance levels are anticipated at $1.07984, $1.08335, and $1.08811, while support levels are established at $1.07124, $1.06751, and $1.06395. Notably, the 50-day moving average stands at $1.07141, with the 200-day moving average positioned at $1.07438, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. A bullish outlook persists above the pivot point, though a dip below this point could indicate a significant selling trend in the market.

GBPUSD

Anticipated Movement:

Predictions suggest a potential increase in the GBP/USD pair.

Fundamental Analysis:

Monday’s economic calendar lacks significant data releases, leaving the USD's valuation and GBP/USD's trajectory susceptible to shifts in risk sentiment throughout the day. Following a mixed performance during the Asian trading hours, US stock index futures demonstrated a positive turn in the early European session. A robust opening on Wall Street could bolster GBP/USD during American trading hours. Moreover, the forthcoming announcement on Thursday regarding monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England is expected to significantly influence GBP/USD dynamics.

Technical Analysis:

For GBP/USD, resistance levels are projected at 1.25703, 1.26182, and 1.26649, while potential declines might find support at 1.24669, 1.24230, and 1.23797. Notably, the 50-day moving average stands at 1.25137, and the 200-day moving average at 1.25466, indicating a neutral to bullish bias.

BTCUSD

BTCUSD Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

Bitcoin's blockchain recently marked a milestone, surpassing 1 billion transactions. Despite a bullish attempt to breach the $65,500 resistance level, Bitcoin struggled to sustain its position. This endeavor, however, injected notable upward momentum into the market.

The cryptocurrency landscape appears primed for Bitcoin to challenge the $66,000 zone, potentially sparking a robust upward trajectory.

Technical Analysis:

Examining the 4-hour chart reveals increased selling pressure following Bitcoin's failure to breach the $68,000 mark. This triggered a visible downtrend, breaking below the wedge's lower trendline and hovering around $59,000. The breach prompted the liquidation of numerous long positions, resulting in a significant downturn and a swift test of the $56,000 level. Nonetheless, the price swiftly rebounded, retracing above the wedge's lower boundary and the $59,000 support level.

Presently, BTC is on the cusp of reclaiming its previous daily swing high at $65,000. If successful, the bullish momentum towards the $68,000 threshold is anticipated to persist in the short term.

Disclaimer

Derivative investments involve significant risks and may result in the loss of the capital you invest. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.

RISK WARNING IN TRADING

Transactions via margin involves products that use leverage mechanisms, carry high risks, and are certainly not suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be wary of those who guarantee profits in trading. You are advised not to use funds if you are not prepared to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, ensure that you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.