Market Analysis
XAUUSD
Forecast: Decline Anticipated
Fundamental Analysis:
Following a two-day meeting, it was declared that interest rates would remain unchanged. This decision, the third time this year and the sixth overall, was largely in line with market expectations. The trajectory of gold prices is poised to be influenced by the imminent release of the US NFP report, slated for tonight at 8:30 pm. Analysts posit that a weaker-than-anticipated report could provide further bolstering for gold prices. This potential outcome may sustain gold prices above the $2,000 threshold for the remainder of the year, with the possibility of breaching the $2,500 mark.
Technical Analysis:
Subsequent to a downturn that saw gold prices dip below $2,300, a significant support level appears to have coalesced around $2,280. A conclusive drop beneath $2,280 could signal a broader decline, potentially propelling gold prices towards the subsequent support zone, ranging from $2,268 to $2,265. On the upside, immediate resistance is observed around $2,335, with the subsequent resistance lying at this week's peak, estimated within the range of $2,352 to $2,353.
USDJPY
Forecast: Decline
Fundamental Analysis:
Recent data from the Bank of Japan and private money brokers suggest a significant increase in yen purchases by Japan this week. According to reports, the Bank of Japan has indicated a decrease of 4.36 trillion yen in commercial bank deposits, staying within its set limit of $160 billion for such purchases.
Technical Analysis:
There are indications that the recent downward trend in USD/JPY, stemming from previous peaks, may have concluded, potentially paving the way for further gains. However, a drop below the $152.50 threshold could lead to a retreat towards the support level at $151.70. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing the 30 level suggests a temporary upper boundary in the market, hinting at a possible downward movement before bouncing back at the support level.
AUDUSD
Predicted Movement: Decline
Fundamental Analysis:
Australia experienced a significant decrease in its trade balance for March, marking the lowest level in over three years. This decline was primarily driven by a notable surge in imports, coupled with persistently weak exports, particularly in crucial sectors such as commodities. The diminished demand for commodities, largely influenced by concerns surrounding China's economic stability, led to a decline in prices. A potential improvement in China's economic outlook could potentially bolster the value of the Australian dollar.
Technical Analysis:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a bullish sentiment as it currently stands above the 50-level. The AUD/USD pair appears poised to test the upper boundary at approximately $0.6580. Conversely, downside movement may see the pair gravitate towards the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle, near the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6509. A breach below this level could initiate a downward trend, possibly targeting the throwback support around $0.6480. Currently, the AUD/USD pair is endeavoring to breach the resistance point at $0.658, warranting close monitoring in the coming hours.
US Oil
Forecast: Decline
Fundamental Analysis:
According to the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration's This Week in Petroleum report, US oil storage has seen a notable uptick, rising by 7.3 million barrels to reach a total of 460.9 million barrels by April 26th. Concurrently, the decision by the US Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates, while hinting at potential future increases, has instilled concerns about subdued economic growth. This sentiment, coupled with diminishing tensions in the Middle East, has introduced a bearish outlook on oil prices.
Traditionally, when oil storage levels rise, it tends to exert downward pressure on oil prices, while decreases in storage often correlate with price increases.
Technical Analysis:
Analyzing the 1-hour chart reveals a downward trendline, indicating the ongoing descent in prices. Should the price surpass this line and exceed the $80.30 resistance level observed on the daily chart, we anticipate heightened buyer confidence and an increase in bullish activity, potentially driving prices to new peaks. In the short term, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below 50, suggesting recent downward momentum persists in the market.
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