Market Analysis

 

Prolonged Strengthening of the USD

 

The prediction for the USD today tends to show a long-term increase due to the influence of inflation and the increasing US debt. This influence is expected to persist despite the USD defaulting on its own government debt in previous years but still accumulating debt, which warrants attention. The rise in the USD is predicted to primarily target investors who may have shifted to gold due to conflicts in the Middle East and the Europe-Russia conflict, which could escalate into World War III, thus requiring attention. However, with this USD strengthening, among nations, concerns have arisen regarding the development of the USD itself due to the considerable US debt. They are predicted to focus solely on the US debt to prevent economic collapse. However, with excessive debt and decreasing USD usage, investors may only be interested in the USD on a "Come and Go" basis, necessitating attention. This increase will also impact the increasingly uncertain global economy, which needs to be monitored closely.

XAUUSD

 

Technical Analysis

 

Bearish Reversal / Downward

 

Supply Level: 2403.45 - 2392.34

 

The prediction for Gold today suggests a tendency to decline, indicating a significant correction is still underway, signaling uncertainty in prices. However, the influence of upward movement remains strong for gold overall, as investors continue to favor gold as a safe haven asset, which is noteworthy. The Israel - Iran conflict is escalating, and this influence is feared by some countries to provoke retaliatory attacks from Israel. Despite this, Israel persists in its attacks and has made a mistake for the future, potentially prompting Iran to retaliate based on predictions. There is indeed a short-term downward trend pattern, which can also be capitalized on by some gold-loving investors. This prediction and analysis are supported by candlestick analysis and trend analysis.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

Gold has glittered towards record highs amid geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar, subdued real yields, but with expectations of a rate cut taking a big hit, the rise in this precious metal may soon stall.

 "We won't add gold exposure at current prices, seeing it vulnerable in the 6-12 month timeframe as markets ahead will increasingly temper expectations of Fed rate cuts and bond yields have more positives," said a strategist at MRB Partners in a note on Friday. Gold prices have weathered the higher macroeconomic perfect storm that began last October and peaked in mid-February against a backdrop of broadly flat US real interest rates and a stable US dollar, strategists added. 

 

However, in recent weeks, the dollar and bond yields, especially real yields, the two dominant drivers of the gold cycle, have risen and continued to rise, paving the way for higher paths for the precious metal. The surge in yields follows a number of hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials including from chair Jerome Powell, who earlier this week hinted that recent inflation surprises have knocked the Fed's confidence to begin cutting rates. 

 

Traders are now eyeing the first Fed rate cut in September rather than June, with only two rate cuts expected for this year, down from six or seven previously expected, and fewer than the three rate cuts for 2024 projected by the Fed at its March meeting.

 

However, gold has appreciated despite the backdrop of higher yields and a stronger dollar, but it is "now quite overbought," strategists warned. The resilience of this precious metal is likely explained by ongoing momentum as well as a surge in demand for safe-haven assets following increased geopolitical tensions.

 

OIL / WTI

 

 

Technical Analysis

 

Continuation Bullish / Rise

 

Demand Level: 79.12 - 80.82

 

Today's prediction for Oil tends to rise again after a slight decrease the day before in the short term, consistent with the previous day's forecast. Additionally, the current situation is influenced by the high tension between Israel and Iran, which could potentially escalate into World War III. Moreover, following the attack on Israel, retaliation is anticipated, further driving up oil prices. This prediction is also supported by ongoing domestic conflicts in the US, particularly with Texas, which could further impact oil prices, attracting attention. This analysis and prediction are supported by trend analysis and candlestick analysis.

 

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

Natural gas futures traded higher during US trading on Friday. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for May delivery traded at $1.75 per mmBTU at the time of writing, up 0.17%. The instrument previously traded at a session high of $ per mmBTU. Natural gas is likely to find support at $1.649 and resistance at $1.805. The US Dollar Index Futures, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.01% and traded at $105.97. Meanwhile, on the Nymex, Crude Oil for May delivery rose 0.50% and traded at $83.14 per barrel, while Heating Oil for May delivery rose 0.52% and traded at $2.55 per gallon.

USDJPY

 

Technical Analysis

 

Bearish Reversal / Down

 

Supply Levels: 154.765 - 154.624

 

The prediction for USD this morning tends to decline, but this decline is predicted to be temporary and needs to be noted. This decline still falls into the short term, and further, USD prices will generally rise and this needs to be observed. The influence of USD rising is because it is predicted that USD does not want to be left behind in competition with Gold, as Gold is still the focus of investors for now. This impact is also triggered by World War 3, where investors still prefer Gold over USD because the level of trust in USD tends to decrease significantly due to the US involvement in and assistance to countries involved in the Middle East and Russia - Europe, making this a focus and causing investors to be skeptical in the future even though USD tends to rise, and perhaps this USD rise can only be exploited by investors temporarily as investors tend to be "Come and Go." Trend-wise, this will make the Yen strengthen, but only temporarily, and this opportunity can also be utilized by some investors who like this USDJPY pair.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

Yen experienced a slight increase. In Asia, USD/JPY traded mostly flat at 154.38 from before, after testing a 34-year high above 154. The strengthening in the yen also makes the market remain cautious about government intervention. The influence of weakening against USD is predicted in the range of 0.40% - 0.785, so this needs to be noted.

 

EURUSD

 

 

Technical Analysis

 

Bullish Reversal

 

Demand Level: 1.06400 - 1.06520

 

There is potential for the euro to trend upward due to the temporary weakening of the USD, which is likely to strengthen the euro in the near term. This influence also tends to elevate inflation for the euro due to the lingering impact of the Russia-Europe conflict, which still lacks clarity for the future and requires attention. There has been a change in trend direction, indicating a potential for an upward movement. This prediction and analysis are supported by trend analysis and candlestick analysis.

Fundamental Analysis

 

The current prediction for the euro suggests a reversal for an upward movement, with price fluctuations ranging from 0.31% to 0.48%. However, it's important to be cautious about this projected decline in the near future, which warrants attention. The strengthening influence remains consistent with the ongoing Russia-Europe conflict, which continues to simmer and pose similar risks as before.

 

NASDAQ

 

Technical Analysis

 

Bearish Reversal / Down

 

Supply Levels: 18516 - 18256

 

The prediction for the Nasdaq index tends to decline, consistent with previous forecasts and in line with yesterday's prediction. The trend of prices continues to show a decline and remains ongoing, indicating a significant potential for further downward movement. Signs of a considerable decrease are evident, and this needs attention. The impact of this reversal has resulted in considerable rejection of candlestick patterns that fail to sustain upward momentum. Additionally, the downturn is influenced by the price reaching overbought conditions or encountering resistance, with the potential for the all-time high already achieved, suggesting further downside potential. Moreover, this opportunity can be capitalized upon by investors favoring the Nasdaq index, potentially strengthening the USD significantly. There is no significant news affecting the Nasdaq index for today.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

The forecast for the Nasdaq index indicates a potential decline ranging from 0.48% to 1.35%. This influence tends to make investors consider selling or abandoning this asset, despite the release of news regarding "US Inflation/CPI," which shows strengthening. However, this potential strengthening also impacts purchasing power negatively due to the deteriorating influence of the USD government, making it a crucial point to note. Investors favoring the Nasdaq index can exploit this continuation pattern, as the potential for weakening is likely to persist for a considerable duration, warranting attention.

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